$SPY In typical market fashion, we are now in a situation where the senate has to not only approve the relief bill, but triple it, in order to justify the price movement. $2T is approx 10% of the market cap of the S&P 500. Meaning the market just priced in the relief bill as if it will 1) be approved (may or may not happen, could be a few days if it is) and 2) be a $2T 100% direct injection into the market cap of the S&P 500. At best I see ~30-35% of the relief going to S&P market cap. So we may once again be in a situation where the markets get absolutely EVERYTHING they could possibly hope for...and still have to drop as soon as they do. It's honestly mind-boggling how powerful a rumor is vs actual action. The 3M unemployment rumor and the 10, 15, even 25% GDP contraction could present some reality checks to new bulls here. Trade carefully, don't chase. I'm starting to get bullish too but there's no need to panic buy.
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