$MNLO @ $2.24/share MNLO's enterprise valuation (w/almost $100MM cash & long-term debt due a (friendly) s/h = $221MM. If MNLO's FMX103 is approved by the FDA as expected on or around 6/2/20 then MNLO will have 2 FDA approved products with estimated peak annual revenues of ~$350MM. A 2019 E&Y study of biotech M&A says acquisitions are priced at 3 - 5 times peak estimated revenues (with MNLO's products likely on the lower end). The last pure acne company acquisition was Aczone (made by Dow Pharmaceutical Sciences) which was acquired for 2X est. peak annual revenues in 2008. If MNLO is worth 2 times peak annual sales or $700MM that would represent a 216% gain for shareholders from $2.24/share. If MNLO is worth 3X peak sales then shareholder returns could be as high as 375%. MNLO has not suggested it is for sale. PS: BTIG report on PRTK estimates $500MM in peak annual Seysara revenues. Most analysts forecast AMZEEQ will match or beat Seysara. This would raise value by a factor of 2.5
  • 15
15 Likes