$VBIV people.stern.nyu.edu/msubra... talks through something El mentioned about how option activity rises as you get within 30 days of M&A I'll include screenshots for every option chain's OI I explored The conclusions I draw 1. There is quite a bit of OTM calls and high theta/ITM puts OI being added in the last 4-6 weeks especially towards end of december 2. There is a large amount of general call buying and it only increases for Jan, especially in last 4-6 weeks 3. There's as much Jan activity as there is december activity in december (odd since december is cheaper for speculation) 4. November 18th seems to kick off a lot of the increases 5. We don't see quite as much activity in the 7.5/10s vs the 3.5-5s 6. We actually see ITM calls/OTM puts start to get closed out as we approach expiration. This aligns with M&A options activity according to the paper. Look inside here for more data on the OI of various option chains. I wish I'd paid attention a bit sooner for some of this.
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