$LCID 2026 expectation? Plant was supposed to be 2024 based on commentary a year ago. With new player capacity issues given overall timeline of auto industry capacity by 2026, don’t be surprised to see continued multiple contractions. For instance Lucid 2022 rev est $3.4 B 22’ at a $75 B Market cap (with 1.65 B shares that’s $45.45 )that’s a 22 PS multiple. A 11 PS you get $22.72 Reality is too many overall players for stagnant worldwide market 85 to 95 mil last 7 years…US market has been between 15-17 mil units for 44 years Aka since 1978 to 2021…long term stagnation. This is great for consumers as chip shortages revert and the number of auto producers has grown exponentially over the last 20 years…should bring prices down by mid 2020s when capacity amongst all auto is significant…not to mention Google’s Waymo and Apple entering the space. Lots of suppliers and slowed uptick of buyers…bullish for consumers…bearish for inflated multiples on any all autos Tesla to Ford to Rivian.
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