@bravo1 price action, potential fed pivot, recession catalyst has passed, etc. I am still leaning towards weakness into October but who knows. Just gonna take what the market gives
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@Blackouts @bravo1 disagree but we’ll see. I think we’ve seen only the technical recession so far in terms of 2 negative gdp quarters back to back with some impact on earnings related to inflation. Fed rate hikes havent even been fully felt yet by economy and companies as it traditionally takes at least a few months for a hike to have full impact. This is eye of storm imo and the real recession effects in terms of rising unemployment, defaults, etc still to come and will be due to double whammy of inflation and corresponding rate hikes. That is likely end of this year into early 2023 imo. That will be the lower low and capitulation type event coinciding with inflation destruction and fed pivot. If indices go up, that counteracts fed liquidity tightening and means they have to drive rates up even higher.
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