Heres my Breakdown on $IOVA
1) Implied volatility is higher than my forecast, so given the current market sentiment, the market is pricing in bigger moves than what I think there will be.
2)Here's something that really gave me insight into MYOK, the comparison of historic implied vol and historic realized vol. For MYOK, Realized vol was going down while Implied vol SKYROCKETED. And there was no clear reason for it I could see. There were no retail or funds driving it up. Looking at IOVA, we see the opposite. RV is flat and IV is coming down.
My view: No insider trading.
There's still a trade though!
3) This is the skew. a basic understand is that it shows me where the demand is in the options chain and where people are bidding up the cost of the options. and we can see that there is a bit of call skew (left side is up slightly), so someone is betting on it going up
4) The relative action is high and lots of people looking at it on ST.
You could short vol here!