$IOVA Someone asked me to break this down, they thought there might be some insider trading going on. Here's my analysis: 1) Implied volatility is higher than my forecast, so given the current market sentiment, the market is pricing in bigger moves than what I think there will be. 2)Here's something that really gave me insight into MYOK, the comparison of historic implied vol and historic realized vol. For MYOK, RV was going down while IV SKYROCKETED, With no clear reason why. There were no retail or funds driving it up. Looking at IOVA, we see the opposite. RV is flat and IV is coming down. So no big insider trading, There's still a trade though! 3) This is the skew. It shows me where the demand is in the options chain and where people are bidding up the cost of the options. and we can see that there is a bit of call skew (left side is up slightly), so someone is betting on it going up 4) relative action is high and lots of people looking at it on ST. We can short vol here!
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