If you don’t track the MOVE index (bond volatility) then you need to start if you’re interested in attempting to predict overall market direction. It can be useful in determining how hedged the market is. Low = no fear, potential big event incoming High = hedged to the teeth, big event already happened. The MOVE has been steadily ticking up, which to me coincides with some of the volatility in $SPY these past three months (mid September lows back to our current high). It’s also considered one of the best gamma volatility indexes.
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