$RAIL Retention payment of 1.5 '19 salary if mgmt fired before buyout or if the company secures incremental available financing of at least $30mm. With such a strong asset base, $RAIL could easily receive a $30mm credit line. This is an interesting situation. Last week I passed because if you can't value a firm using a DCF, than you have to use multiples (which technically is relative value, not absolute value which makes any multiple valuation speculative by nature). Using multiples, this looks cheap on a historical basis but with mgmt forecasting near term losses until the next market cycle, this deserves to trades at a lower multiple compared to last year. Their is asset value here. I think NAV is about ~$6.5 here. So a buyout is a very real possibility. My entire thesis is now turning to what I think this latest 8k means. Is a buyout imminent? Also on 11/26 (the day the 8k was filed) block volume was 9.4x that of the average block volume. Any thoughts on this 8k?
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