Markets (including the equity market) are designed for a purpose. The purpose of the equity market is **not** to reflect the economy or EPS. So any analysis that relies on these factors to forecast it will fail. The equity market is designed to preserve the wealth (in the absence of risk events). Imagine the equity market crashes and do not recover, then what happens to all 401ks and retirement accounts? This is the factor that is considered by the marker designers. Of course no market is flawless and might fail. Overtime the equity market and rules around it have changed to make sure that irrecoverable crashes do not happen. There might be flaws in its design that are not exploited yet. But you cannot use traditional tools that are known to the designers to find the holes and its flaws. It might fail but not for reasons that are known to you. Do not try to predict crashes and bubbles!!! $SPY $UVXY