$PTON all of the catalysts that drove Peloton through the roof during the pandemic are returning. I don't think the US will return to lockdowns, but it's not inconceivable to see restrictions on places like the gym (such as reduced occupancy / requirement to schedule visits) and prolonged work-from-home policies. All of that just makes it easier to justify workout from home. We've seen before that a slowdown in CF product sales doesn't contribute to an increase in churn. Any short to medium term increase in bike and tread sales would lock in new subscribers for the long haul. This doesn't (and shouldn't) take us back over 100, but it should prop us up from the bottom with a stronger foundation.
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@bearishpelotonbubble lower 30's seems unlikely to me and if it comes to that I'll probably end up exiting as it would signal something fundamentally flawed with my thesis. I'd like to see them take apparel more seriously. Already, Athleisure is a huge opportunity overall. Peloton has the brand and a captive audience comprised of high income subscribers to take advantage. If they're not willing to throw ads for other goods and services, then perhaps a home-screen banner to purchase apparel straight from the bike / tread / phone app. Tie in workout activity with discounts or other apparel perks and we could see a few key metrics rise, revenues included.
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@SageMartin But you also have to factor in 6-9 months from now the federal reserve has signal they will possibly raise interest rates That will have a major impact on growth stocks The question is? Is the market pricing in interest rates now the market is forward looking. And always looks ahead 6-9 months Tapering started getting priced in 9 months ago Look at charts of stocks all time high since March 2020 How will this affect peloton who is no longer growing and not profitable Playing it conservative and sticking to the at home niche in this upcoming environment I think they have to take a risk and Do pivot The market has sent a signal grow or die When Cathy woods sell your stock it’s bad. She only kept 11k shares out of 1.7m
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