Time Cycles – July 1, 2022

Get your tinfoil hats on; this is gonna get interesting.

One of the ‘Founding Fathers’ of Technical Analysis, W.D. Gann focused heavily on using time cycles to determine when an instrument may make major changes in its trend. For example, if a cluster of cycles falls around the same date range, and an instrument is trading at a major high/low, then it has a high probability of reversing.

A collection of those cycles are culminating between now and the end of next week.

90-day cycle (can extend to 99 days)

The most recent major swing high was on March 28, 2022, when Bitcoin got close to the critical $50,000 level. Bitcoin is currently 91 days from that date. The 90-day cycle is the most important Gann cycle. Gann said this cycle has the following behaviors:
Most powerful division of the one-year cycle.

  • High probability of support or resistance at this day count.
  • 90 days up or down will usually start a countertrend movement or reverse the trend entirely.
  • 90 days from significant highs/lows must be watched for trend changes.
225-day cycle (can extend to 250 days)

From the all-time high back in November 2021, Bitcoin is currently 233 days from the all-time high. Gann said this cycle has these types of behaviors:

  • It can be the last high/low or, more typically, a lower high/higher low which ends a topping/bottoming pattern.
  • If a high/low was found at 90 days, then 135 days is also 45 days from a high/low.
  • Always watch for a change in the trend.
  • Fast moves can start.
  • Can go to lower low or higher high.
49-day ‘Death Zone’ Cycle (can extend to 52 days)

Always colorful with his terminology, Gann called special attention to the 49-day cycle by calling it the ‘death zone.’ He stated that 49 to 52 days after a ‘blow-off move’ (a fast or large move in one direction), the move is likely to terminate abruptly.

Bitcoin is currently 49-days from the May 12th flash crash, which is also the last minor swing low.

Market Seasonality Date – July 7th

Gann taught that July 7th is often a period where major advances and declines often culminate around this date and to watch for trend changes.

Putting it all together

The combination of the severe oversold levels and culmination of multiple time cycles should give crypto enthusiasts a heads up that there is a high probability of a bounce coming. Not guaranteed, but highly probable. 🌓

Whether you’re outside for July 4th or stuck inside monitoring your portfolio, there will be some fireworks over the holiday break! 🧨

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