It’s always good to check your analysis and forecasts. And for the love of God, if you don’t have a trade journal or an analysis journal, start one. Unless you’ve got a photographic memory, you’ll never remember half of the right or wrong trades/analyses you’ve done.
This Friday edition of Technically Speaking performs a back check on the most recent past analysis so you don’t have to.
That was a joke – of course, you should check it for yourself and do your own due diligence!
Each section will summarize the analysis on the respective date and summarize what happened after.
Pro-tip: Right-click the images and select ‘Open In New Tab’ to see the full chart.
Back Check of June 17, 2022
Result(s): Bitcoin is currently +10% higher from the date of that analysis but was up by as much as +20%.
Back Check of June 22, 2022
The analysis for June 22 focused on volume discrepancies between Bitcoin’s weekly spot chart and the weekly Total Crypto Market Cap chart. The most important point was the rising volume in Bitcoin, with prices continuing to fall on the weekly chart.
The outlook warned that based on the technical analysis maxim, ‘volume precedes price’, there was a high probability of price reversing direction.
Result(s): Bitcoin is currently up more than +15% but has gained as much as +23.5%
Back Check on July 1, 2022
The analysis on Bitcoin focused on four critical Gann Cycles that warned of a highly probable upside swing. First, the 90 and 225-day Cycles of the Inner Year were highlighted. Additionally, Gann’s 49-day ‘death zone’ and the seasonal date of July 7th were reviewed.
The outlook determined a high probability of a bounce occurring – not guaranteed, but highly probable.
Result(s): July 2022 was the best monthly close for Bitcoin since October 2021.
Back Check of July 6, 2022
This analysis was over the weekly Total Market Cap chart. The focus was on the Volume Profile and the extremely thin zone between the high volume nodes at $975 billion and $1.17 trillion. The outlook warned that a swift move to $1.17 trillion was increasingly likely if the Total Market Cap closed above $975 billion on the weekly chart.
Result(s): The Total Market Cap spiked nearly +9% on July 18 before giving back all of those gains and bouncing strongly from $920 billion to $1.11 trillion. The thinner the Volume Profile, the faster Bitcoin has risen.
Back Check of July 15, 2022
Bitcoin’s weekly and monthly charts were the focus of the July 15 analysis. The TL;DR for bulls indicated a high probability of the bottom of this market occurring soon due to extreme lows in key oscillator levels and a turning point in the Ichimoku system.
The TL;DR for bears reminded bulls that just because an oscillator was at a new all-time low doesn’t mean a rise is guaranteed. Additionally, the analysis pointed out the resistance the Tenkan-Sen would likely have if Bitcoin moved higher.
Result(s): The bullish outlook has been rehashed already, so we know how BTC responded. And the warning regarding The Tenkan-Sen (blue moving average) acting as resistance has so far been true.
Back Check of July 20, 2022
Result(s): Ethereum did pull back but found buyers against the daily Kijun-Sen and has since moved higher. Ethereum is now above the daily Ichimoku Cloud with a confirmed Ideal Bullish Ichimoku Breakout – I’ll go into more specifics with that very soon in one of next week’s Litepaper.
Back Check of July 22, 2022
The Polkadot analysis looked at the Volume Profile and warned of a swift move towards $10 if DOT closed above the $8 level. The bearish BAT analysis also looked at the Volume Profile and consolidation of price action that could precede a bullish breakout.
Result(s): Polkadot moved from the $7 level to $8 and did move quickly through the thin part of the Volume Profile before stopping at the $9.22 value area.
Basic Attention Token has done diddly squat; instead, it continued to constrict and consolidate near the Volume Point Of Control near $0.395. However, during the writing of this article, BAT looks like it’s flirting with a breakout above the current high volume node.
Back Check of July 25, 2022
The analysis on July 25 focused on two breakout levels and price action behaviors for bulls and bears on the Total Crypto Market Cap chart.
Result(s): The total market cap did breakout above the flag, consolidated, moved lower and retest the break and, again, moved higher.
Back Check of July 27, 2022
Cosmos ($ATOM.X) and FTX Token ($FTT.X) were the focus of July 27’s analysis. The Point and Figure chart for Cosmos identified areas analysts would expect to see bulls take over or bears resume the downtrend.
The FTX Token analysis anticipated a move to $34 if a daily close at or above $28.25 occurred. However, the bearish case identified a close below $24.25 as one that could push FTT much lower.
Result(s): Cosmos hit the $10.50 price level and is currently in the $11 value area. FTX Token moved close to $32.50 before returning to the $30 value area. 💲