Technically Speaking – August 5, 2022

It’s always good to check your analysis and forecasts. And for the love of God, if you don’t have a trade journal or an analysis journal, start one. Unless you’ve got a photographic memory, you’ll never remember half of the right or wrong trades/analyses you’ve done. 

This Friday edition of Technically Speaking performs a back check on the most recent past analysis so you don’t have to. 

That was a joke – of course, you should check it for yourself and do your own due diligence!

Each section will summarize the analysis on the respective date and summarize what happened after. 

Pro-tip: Right-click the images and select ‘Open In New Tab’ to see the full chart.

Back Check of June 17, 2022

June 17, 2022

The analysis on this date reviewed the five largest drops in Bitcoin’s ($BTC.X) history. A mean reversion or wider trend change was expected. 

August 5, 2022

Result(s): Bitcoin is currently +10% higher from the date of that analysis but was up by as much as +20%. 

 

Back Check of June 22, 2022

June 22, 2022

The analysis for June 22 focused on volume discrepancies between Bitcoin’s weekly spot chart and the weekly Total Crypto Market Cap chart. The most important point was the rising volume in Bitcoin, with prices continuing to fall on the weekly chart. 

The outlook warned that based on the technical analysis maxim, ‘volume precedes price’, there was a high probability of price reversing direction. 

August 5, 2022

Result(s): Bitcoin is currently up more than +15% but has gained as much as +23.5%

 

Back Check on July 1, 2022

July 1, 2022

The analysis on Bitcoin focused on four critical Gann Cycles that warned of a highly probable upside swing. First, the 90 and 225-day Cycles of the Inner Year were highlighted. Additionally, Gann’s 49-day ‘death zone’ and the seasonal date of July 7th were reviewed.

The outlook determined a high probability of a bounce occurring – not guaranteed, but highly probable. 

August 5, 2022

Result(s): July 2022 was the best monthly close for Bitcoin since October 2021.

 

Back Check of July 6, 2022
July 6, 2022

This analysis was over the weekly Total Market Cap chart. The focus was on the Volume Profile and the extremely thin zone between the high volume nodes at $975 billion and $1.17 trillion. The outlook warned that a swift move to $1.17 trillion was increasingly likely if the Total Market Cap closed above $975 billion on the weekly chart.

August 5, 2022

Result(s): The Total Market Cap spiked nearly +9% on July 18 before giving back all of those gains and bouncing strongly from $920 billion to $1.11 trillion. The thinner the Volume Profile, the faster Bitcoin has risen. 

 

Back Check of July 15, 2022
July 15, 2022

Bitcoin’s weekly and monthly charts were the focus of the July 15 analysis. The TL;DR for bulls indicated a high probability of the bottom of this market occurring soon due to extreme lows in key oscillator levels and a turning point in the Ichimoku system. 

The TL;DR for bears reminded bulls that just because an oscillator was at a new all-time low doesn’t mean a rise is guaranteed. Additionally, the analysis pointed out the resistance the Tenkan-Sen would likely have if Bitcoin moved higher. 

August 5, 2022

Result(s): The bullish outlook has been rehashed already, so we know how BTC responded. And the warning regarding The Tenkan-Sen (blue moving average) acting as resistance has so far been true.

 

Back Check of July 20, 2022
July 20, 2022

The July 20 analysis focused on Ethereum ($ETH.X). The TL;DR for bulls and bears warned of Ethereum showing signs of getting too top-heavy, with a high probability of a pullback. 

August 5, 2022

Result(s): Ethereum did pull back but found buyers against the daily Kijun-Sen and has since moved higher. Ethereum is now above the daily Ichimoku Cloud with a confirmed Ideal Bullish Ichimoku Breakout – I’ll go into more specifics with that very soon in one of next week’s Litepaper.

 

Back Check of July 22, 2022

July 22, 2022
July 22, 2022

The July 22 Technically Speaking article highlighted key price levels to watch that weekend for Polkadot ($DOT.X) and Basic Attention Token ($BAT.X)

The Polkadot analysis looked at the Volume Profile and warned of a swift move towards $10 if DOT closed above the $8 level. The bearish BAT analysis also looked at the Volume Profile and consolidation of price action that could precede a bullish breakout. 

August 5, 2022

Result(s): Polkadot moved from the $7 level to $8 and did move quickly through the thin part of the Volume Profile before stopping at the $9.22 value area. 

August 5, 2022

Basic Attention Token has done diddly squat; instead, it continued to constrict and consolidate near the Volume Point Of Control near $0.395. However, during the writing of this article, BAT looks like it’s flirting with a breakout above the current high volume node. 

 
Back  Check of July 25, 2022
July 25, 2022

The analysis on July 25 focused on two breakout levels and price action behaviors for bulls and bears on the Total Crypto Market Cap chart. 

August 5, 2022

Result(s): The total market cap did breakout above the flag, consolidated, moved lower and retest the break and, again, moved higher. 

 

Back Check of July 27, 2022
July 27, 2022

Cosmos ($ATOM.X) and FTX Token ($FTT.X) were the focus of July 27’s analysis. The Point and Figure chart for Cosmos identified areas analysts would expect to see bulls take over or bears resume the downtrend. 

July 27, 2022

The FTX Token analysis anticipated a move to $34 if a daily close at or above $28.25 occurred. However, the bearish case identified a close below $24.25 as one that could push FTT much lower. 

August 5, 2022
August 5, 2022

Result(s): Cosmos hit the $10.50 price level and is currently in the $11 value area. FTX Token moved close to $32.50 before returning to the $30 value area. 💲

 

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ST Exclusive: VanEck CEO Talks Crypto

The Daily Rip and Litepaper had a fantastic opportunity to sit down with the CEO of one of the biggest names in ETFs: Jan van Eck. With the upcoming Merge for Ethereum ($ETH.X), Cardano’s ($ADA.X) Vasil hard fork, and the myriad of other events in the crypto space, there hasn’t been a lot of focus on the upcoming SEC decision over the fate of VanEck’s third spot Bitcoin ETF application.

The SEC has consistently rejected every spot ETF application. Why is that? And what is Bitcoin/crypto’s role in an overall investment portfolio anyway? We get into these questions and more in today’s exclusive chat with one of the biggest names on Wall Street.

Can you give us a brief intro on who you are and what VanEck is for those who are unfamiliar?

VanEck was founded in 1955, and our approach to investing is what I call ‘macro.’ It’s what international investors are very used to, which is looking at what’s happening worldwide. History as it reminds us that the world is radically changing all the time. As money managers, we try to offer funds that take advantage of the changes in the markets.

My father started the firm and is best known for creating the first gold fund in the United States in 1968, which led to our breakthrough. At the time, gold was pegged to around $35 an ounce and had been pegged against the dollar, not for just a couple of months but the entirety of US history—almost 200 years. 

He took his fund and almost all the assets and bought gold mining shares, thinking that that would change. And it did a couple of years later. So I think that’s the kind of perspective we bring to the market. 

Coming to Bitcoin in 2017, we had to determine: is Bitcoin ($BTC.X) going to be a real competitor to gold or not? We determined that it was. There was not much to read on Bitcoin back then unless you read the whitepaper or listened to some podcasts, but that was our conclusion. Since then, we’ve been saying that it should be considered a part of people’s portfolios. 

Speaking of Bitcoin, let’s get right into that discussion. What role do you see Bitcoin playing in a portfolio?

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Cardano’s Vasil Upgrade Is Tomorrow

Ethereum’s ($ETH.X) Merge was, from a price action perspective, a nothing burger. Gas fees are still high, and scalability is still an issue. Shifting to Proof-of-Stake is a major, major deal – but not one that speculators were really excited about. 

Cardano’s ($ADA.X) Vasil update has the opposite situation. It’s absent the major hype that Ethereum’s Merge got, and the final results of Vasil have immediate benefits. So what are the changes with the Vasil hard fork?

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Crypto Exchange New – September 7, 2022

Binance

Binance.US just announced staking for Ethereum today via its blog. Binance is offering rewards up to 6.00% APY. Instead of acquiring the minimum 32 ETH to stake on the network, Binance.US allows users to stake with as little as 0.001 ETH. 

The Swiss-regulated crypto bank, SEBA, also announced Ethereum staking on its platform – but is more geared towards institutions rather than individual investors. 

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