Now let’s look at some of the major altcoins. Unfortunately, few altcoins have existed long enough to have a complete monthly Ichimoku chart.
$LTC.X is one of the oldest altcoins, and it just fulfilled a complete monthly chart after January 2023 closed! So in the absence of a full monthly Ichimoku chart, we will look at the 3-week, 2-week, or 1-week charts.
Litecoin
At first glance, it’s surprising how Litecoin has performed compared to the broader market over the past four months. Since October 2021, LTC has continued to drive higher.
January 2023’s close did two important things for Litecoin: it returned Litecoin above the Tenkan-Sen and back inside the Cloud. It is the first time LTC has closed above the Tenkan-Sen on the monthly chart since April 2021- 21 months. 😱
But the Cloud is a horrible place. The Cloud represents indecision, volatility, Vladimir Putin, STDs, broken hearts, and dreams. The Cloud is where trading accounts go to die.
It will likely be a messy 2023 if LTC stays inside the Cloud.
Ethereum
If $BTC.X is the barometer for the entire cryptocurrency market, then $ETH.X is the barometer for the altcoin market. 🪙
While Bitcoin’s chart shows it’s stuck against its monthly Tenkan-Sen, Ethereum is now above the monthly Tenkan-Sen for the first time since December 2021 – 14 months.
From a support perspective, the Tenkan-Sen is now the closest and most immediate level at $1,455. Below that, it’s the top of the Ichimoku Cloud (Senkou Span B) at $800.
Senkou Span B is the strongest level of support/resistance in the Ichimoku system, and the longer it is flat, the stronger it is perceived to be.
Immediate resistance within the Ichimoku system is the Kijun-Sen at $2,698.
Bulls might not want to see a massive rally for Ethereum in February because of a Kumo Twist in March 2023.
Cardano
If you want to see one hell of an ugly long-term chart, $ADA.X is the chart for you. 😖
Cardano is one of those altcoins that doesn’t have a complete monthly Ichimoku chart, so we’re going with the 3-week.
While Ethereum and Litecoin may be above their monthly Tenkan-Sen levels, Cardano hasn’t closed above the 3-week Tenkan-Sen since October 2021 – 15 months.
However, the most recent 3-week candle closed up +50.40%, the best close since August 2021 – 18 months.
The Tenkan-Sen at $0.382 (insert Fibonacci joke) is the most immediate near-term resistance, but above that, the bottom of the Cloud at $1.58 is the strongest resistance level.
If Cardano continues to make higher closes on the 3-week chart, it will eventually run into the Kijun-Sen, which will probably be around the $1.00 level when price tests it.
But there’s more to the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo system than the indicators. Ichimoku has its own Time, Wave, and Price Principles (known as The Three Principles).
And this is where the Ichimoku analysis goes into overdrive. 🏎️
Kihon Suchi – ‘Day of the turn.’
In a nutshell, Kihon Suchi is the Timespan Principle put into practice. It is similar to using Gann’s cycles of the Inner Year or horizontal Point & Figure counts to identify market turns.
Simply put, Kihon Suchi says that the number of candlesticks and swings in the most recent trend can help identify when a future turn in the market could occur.
Certain numbers are also important in the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo system, 9, 17, 26, 33, 42, and so on.
If we look at Cardano’s monthly chart (yes, the monthly now), the last bull run from March 2020 to August 2021 was 18 candlesticks long. In the Time Span Principle, that number is 16 – one away from the Ichimoku number of 17.
So, theoretically, 16 candlesticks from August 2021 is where a turn in the market has a high probability of occurring. January 2023 was 18 candlesticks from August 2021 – again, one number away from the Ichimoku number 17.
Wave And Price Principles
Again, without diving into the nitty gritty, all we need to know is that Cardano’s monthly chart shows what’s known as an N Wave Pattern in the Ichimoku system.
From there, analysts using the Price Principle can project the price level where they believe $ADA.X will go next – $2.98.
Putting It All Together
Ichimoku analysts indicate the next price level of importance for bulls is just a hair below the $3.00 level.
Utilizing the Kihon Suchi, May 2024 is where bullish analysts would expect the $2.98 to be found or, more importantly, where a new and important swing, low or high, develops.
Other important dates using Ichimoku numbers are September 2023 (9), February 2025 (26), and September 2025 (33).