$BTC.X‘s performance has been spectacular over the past few months – enough to create some theories by big named analysts.
Well-known analyst Willy Woo reported his theory in a Twitter thread that stablecoin inflows and on-chain activity during certain hours suggest that institutions in the U.S. and Europe are responsible. 🐂
This recent rally coincides with a new pattern emerging of stablecoins flowing into exchanges during work days only. Seems to me like the heat signature of large institutions doing the buying. pic.twitter.com/VZuoL4de9U
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) January 31, 2023
Additionally, Woo believes that the spot market (buying the ‘real’ thing on an exchange) is leading the derivatives market:
“Since this rally began, spot flows are dominant and leading over derivatives. It’s spot buying that’s moving the price and derivatives that are lagging. “
While Woo sees Bitcoin’s resilience from many hands, someone else sees a single or few hands involved, similar to 2017. 🐻
The University of Texas McCombs School of Business’s professor John Griffin sees something different.
According to McComb’s School of Business, Mr. Griffin’s research areas are asset pricing, empirical methods, international finance, and investment management.
So, clearly he is someone who knows what the hell he is talking about. Just read his Is Bitcoin Really Untethered? article.
In a nutshell, and this is exceedingly overly simplified, Griffin was one of the few professionals in finance who identified the sneaky and shady parts of Bitfinex and the stablecoin Tether ($USDT.X).
According to Yahoo Finance and Fortune, Griffin and his coauthor (Shams) “… sifted through an incredible 200 gigabytes of trading data, equal to the troves that the Smithsonian Institution collects in two years, and followed sales and purchases from 2.5 million separate wallets.” 😱
Griffen hypothesizes that the same shenanigans in 2017 – 2018 are happening again, with one or a few big players agreeing to support Bitcoin at certain price levels.
Who’s right or wrong?
No clue. Like anything involving trading, investing, or analysis, data from all sides is important to consider.
We’ll update you if any further information/analysis comes from Woo or Griffin.