A “Worldwide Recession”

FedEx’s preliminary earnings announcement did not go over well. We covered it last night when it broke, but it’s worth rehashing, given it just had the worst single-day drop in its history as a public company. 😮

Last night on CNBC’s Mad Money, FedEx CEO Raj Subramanian told Jim Cramer he believes a global recession is coming. The loss in shipping volumes is wide-reaching, and the company has seen weekly declines since its investor day in June.

The company isn’t the only one concerned about the global economy. This week, the World Bank said it’s in its steepest slowdown following a post-recession recovery since 1970. It also noted that it expects central bank rate hikes to continue well into next year as they fight against inflation. Unfortunately, the price to win that battle is likely a further slowdown or loss of growth. 👎

Several famous investors are singing a similar tune. For example, Ed Yardeni expects the U.S. to experience a ‘rolling recession’ as the Fed aggressively raises rates to fix its ‘credibility problem.’

We’ll have to wait and see what the Fed does and says at its meeting next week. But for now, the global economy’s outlook continues to deteriorate as it has most of the year. 🔻

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A Divergence In Homebuilders

Today’s National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index experienced its first negative reading in seven months. 🔻

The index dropped 5 points to 45 in September, with all three components declining. Current sales conditions slipped to 51, sales expectations in the next six months fell to 49, and buyer traffic dropped to 30.

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Inflation Checkup Before FOMC Decision

Tomorrow, the Federal Reserve will make its last interest rate decision for 2023 and update its economic projections. With the market increasing its probability of rate cuts throughout the last few months, it will be a closely watched and discussed event. 👀

We’ll get producer prices tomorrow morning, but today’s focus was on the consumer price index.

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Economic Updates & The Fed

It was a busy day on the economic front, so let’s recap what you missed. 👇

First, we’ll start with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The central bank left rates unchanged after pausing at its September meeting, largely as expected.

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Job Market Continues Cooling

The U.S. labor market continues to cool, which is great news for the Federal Reserve and its 2% inflation goal. While we’ll get more employment data in the days ahead, the November Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) report was significant.

From a job openings perspective, they fell to their lowest level since March 2021 at 8.79 million. That pushed the ratio of job openings to available workers down to 1.4:1, well off its peak of 2:1, where it sat for most of 2022. 📊

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