The Crude Oil Divergence Continues

Crude oil remains under pressure as China’s lockdowns weigh on demand and fears of a global recession rise.

With that said, one thing that traders are keeping an eye on into year-end is the divergence between crude oil’s price and energy stock performance. The two had traded in tandem from January through July when they began to go their separate ways. 🧭

While energy remains the best-performing sector year-to-date, many traders are wondering whether or not it will “catch down” to the price of crude over the coming months.

Bulls argue that the structural energy issues and record profits justify the strength of energy stocks. However, bears say that this divergence cannot last. And with global demand for oil and other energy products falling, then energy stocks will have to fall. 🐂 🐻

Who will be right remains to be seen, but this is a major theme the community is watching. 👀

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Strikes Expand To Vegas Workers

The battle between workers and employers continues, particularly in the service industry. Here’s some updated news on how it’s all shaking out. 👀

First, the United Auto Workers union said it will expand strikes at General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis plants if no significant progress is made by 10:00 a.m. ET Friday. The strikes currently involve about 12.5% of the UAW’s 146,000 members whose labor contracts expired two weeks ago. ❌

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Economic Updates & The Fed

It was a busy day on the economic front, so let’s recap what you missed. 👇

First, we’ll start with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The central bank left rates unchanged after pausing at its September meeting, largely as expected.

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Market Looks Past CPI Report

If it feels like the market is largely finished obsessing about inflation data, it’s because it essentially is. Unless there’s a significant pick up in the core inflation metrics the Fed is watching closely, the market seems set on rates staying steady at next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

And August’s consumer price index (CPI) data did little to move the needle. 😴

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U.S. GDP’s Upside Surprise

It was a busy day of economic data and international news, so let’s cover the highlights. 👇

First, the U.S. economy grew at a 3.3% annualized rate during the final quarter of 2023. That blew away expectations of 2% and locked in full-year growth at 2.5%. Strength in consumer and government spending drove the gain, with inflation also progressing downward. The annual core PCE price index rose just 2.7% YoY, down from 5.9% a year ago. 👍

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