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Crypto Unfazed By Fed FUD Or Banking B.S.

Even though the crypto market today was kind of ‘meh’, it’s still on a tear – and it looks like every tiny pullback keeps getting bought, but will it last? 🟢

In today’s Litepaper, we’ve got a detailed Technically Speaking article looking at Bitcoin’s daily chart and highlighting why analysts think there might be a pullback. 

Additionally, we dive into some detailed time cycle analysis using Gann analysis and the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo system. 

Also on deck: A former Coinbase CTO makes a huge bet that Bitcoin will be worth $1 million in 90 days and an update on all the banking FUD.

Here’s how the market looked at the end of the trading day:

Solana (SOL)
BNB (BNB) $339.13 0.00%
Chainlink (LINK) $7.22 -0.71%
Bitcoin (BTC)
Stellar (XLM)
Monero (XMR) $153.19 -1.28%
TRON (TRX) $0.066 -1.90%
Ethereum (ETH) $1,762 -2.28%
Cardano (ADA) $0.34 -3.94%
Altcoin Market Cap
$592 Billion
Total Market Cap $1.13 Trillion -0.94%

All About Those Banks, No Trouble Featured Image

Why does crypto care about what’s going on with banks? Because they’re all tied together these days. ⛓️

We won’t spend a terrible amount of time with the nitty-gritty of what’s going on in the banking world, but there are some fairly important developments. 

First, Flagstar Bank ($FBC) has acquired most of Signature Bank’s ($SBNY) assets, excluding its cryptocurrency business. The FDIC and OCC gave their approval. The excluded cryptocurrency business will continue to operate independently, as the bank has been a pioneer in providing services to the crypto industry.

In a separate development, the FDIC announced that New York Community Bancorp ($NYCB), through its unit, will assume Signature Bank’s deposits.

On the other side of the Atlantic, Swiss banking giant UBS ($UBS) found itself in a precarious position, as it had to step in for an emergency rescue of its rival, Credit Suisse ($CS). CNBC reported that UBS shares dropped -10% (Credit Suisse nosedived -60%) due to the intervention, highlighting the uncertainty in the global banking sector.

Amidst these events, Justin Sun, the founder of blockchain platform TRON ($TRX), has expressed his desire to acquire the struggling Credit Suisse. Sun intends to turn the bank into a crypto-friendly institution, expanding its services and embracing the growing cryptocurrency and blockchain ecosystem.

And, to make things even better, if you’re from the U.S. and you think the Federal Reserve’s money printer only goes brrrrrr for us in the U.S., it goes brrrrr for the whole globe. 

The U.S. Federal Reserve has expanded its international swap lines to boost dollar liquidity in global markets. The move comes as a response to increased demand for the U.S. dollar, which serves as the global reserve currency amidst prevailing market uncertainties. 🏧

Wager: BTC At $1 Million In 90 Days Featured Image

Cathie Wood recently said $BTC could hit $1 million by 2030 – seven years away and that doesn’t seem too unlikely for many analysts. But what about $1 million in just 90 days? 🤷‍♂️

$COIN‘s ex-CTO Balaji Srinivasan is betting that Bitcoin’s gonna hit a million bucks by June 17th. He’s putting $1 million on the line with two random dudes, and if his wild prediction doesn’t come true, they’ll pocket some sweet $USDC stablecoin.

Balaji’s got this whole “hyperbitcoinization” theory in his head, thinking the global economy will go nuts, the dollar will go down in flames, and everyone will be all about Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s market cap will go through the roof if that happens, making it almost as big as the entire U.S. stock market.

Bitcoin’s price has been skyrocketing while Wall Street’s sweating, so maybe there’s a bit of truth to it.

But not everyone’s buying what Balaji’s selling. Some smart folks on Twitter are calling him out, saying it’d take a bigger disaster than the coronavirus pandemic to make Bitcoin’s price jump like that. If banks in the U.S. and Europe collapse, they think we’d be more worried about surviving than buying Bitcoin.

Some think Balaji’s just trying to stir the pot and get people excited about crypto again. The industry’s been in a slump, and they’re desperate for a pick-me-up. Guess no one told him that Bitcoin has been up 46% in the past ten days.

Others think he’s just trying to get attention for himself and Bitcoin.

So, we’ll see what happens.🕵️‍♂️

Technically Speaking – March 20, 2023 Featured Image

$9,105.45 and +46.07%. That’s how much $BTC has moved in the past ten days. 🤯

The question analysts have is this: are we about to see a pullback, or will crypto keep pamping?

Let’s take a look at Bitcoin’s chart(s). And if you want to skip the Gandalf, Dumbledore, hocus pocus technical analysis, scroll down to the TL;DR (Too Long; Didn’t Read) for the summary. 

On Bitcoin’s daily chart, there are many reasons why a pullback should be expected. 

BTCUSD Daily Chart – Click to enlarge.

The first reason a pullback is expected is the large gaps between the Tenkan-Sen and the bodies of candlesticks (#1 on the chart above) do not last long and typically correct within four to five periods. Today is the seventh day of large gaps.

Note the Kumo Twist on April 4 (#2) and the Cloud pointing in the same direction as the future Cloud on April 8 (#3). 

The next image below shows two oscillators, the Composite Index and the RSI. 

BTCUSD Daily Chart – Click to enlarge.

The second reason a pullback is likely can be seen in the Composite Index above. Similar to the gaps between the candlestick bodies and the Tenkan-Sen. A large gap exists between the Composite Index line (red) and the fast-moving average (green line). Additionally, the Composite Index on the daily chart is sitting near historical highs. 🔝

The third reason and this gets into the tinfoil hat part of technical analysis, is the presence of two important astronomical lunar phases: A Full Moon on March 21 and the Moon Perigee (when the moon is closest to Earth).

For whatever reason, the combination of those two lunar events, when close together, has a high probability of appearing near major/minor swing highs/lows. The screenshot below highlights some recent periods where a Full/New Moon phase occurs within a few days of the Moon Apogee/Perigee.

Click to enlarge.

Continuing with the tinfoil hat analysis, March 20 completes one of Gann’s Cycles of the Inner Year: the 120-day cycle.

March 20 is 120 days from the November 21, 2022, low. 

BTCUSD Daily Chart – Click to enlarge.

Gann wrote that the 120-day cycle usually occurs with the trend and should be watched as a countertrend low if the 90-day cycle was high. Historically, Bitcoin is not very sensitive to the 120-day cycle.

The next cycle, the 135-day cycle, occurs on April 5 – one day after the Kumo Twist. 🔀


Analysts warn that a combination of time cycles warns along with overbought levels on the daily chart indicated Bitcoin and the broader crypto market may face a pullback shortly. 

Additionally, Bitcoin is right up against the bottom of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud (not shown) – an area it hasn’t traded near since April 11, 2022.

Near-term support is a confluence zone of a dominant interior angle and the daily Tenkan-Sen in the $25,300 to $26,000 value areas. 

Future Time Cycle Cluster Dates

Cluster dates are identified to help analysts determine when a new high/low may occur, especially if price is trending strongly into that cluster.

Cluster One

  • April 15 – Moon perigee 
  • April 19 – New Moon 
  • April 21 – Venus 72-degrees

Cluster Two

  • May 2 – 49-day cycle **
  • May 6 – Gann Seasonal Date

Cluster Three

  • June 22 – Gann Seasonal Date
  • July 4 – 225-day cycle
  • July 4 – Full moon, Moon perigee
  • July 7 – Gann Date, Gann warned that advances and declines usually culminate around this date and to watch for trend changes.

Cluster Four

  • July 17 – New Moon 
  • July 20 – Moon Perigee
  • July 24 – 135-day cycle **
  • August 8 – Gann Date, Gann warned to watch for important changes in trends and to watch for tops and bottoms to occur

Cluster Five

  • August 2023 – Ichimoku number 9 (9 monthly candlesticks from November 2022)
  • August 18 – 270-day cycle *
  • August 21 – 180-bar cycle (weekly chart, from Covid Low)

Cluster Six

  • September 12 – Moon Apogee
  • September 14 – New Moon
  • September 16 – 180-day cycle**

Cluster Seven

  • September 23 – Gann Seasonal Date
  • September 27 – Moon Perigee
  • September 29 – Full Moon
  • October 2 – 315-day cycle *

Cluster Eight

  • January 11, 2024 – New Moon
  • January 13, 2024 – Moon Perigee 
  • January 19, 2024 – 315-day **

April 2024 – Ichimoku number 17 (17 Monthly candlesticks from November 2022)

November 2024 – Kumo Twist (Monthly)

January 2015 – Ichimoku number 26 (26 monthly candlesticks from November 2022)

* From the November 2021, 2022 low.

** From the March 10, 2023, low.


Bullets From The Day:

⚠️ Robert Kiyosaki warns that US inflation has become systemic. The Rich Dad, Poor Dad author warns that inflation in the United States is becoming a deeper and more pervasive issue. Kiyosaki emphasizes the importance of understanding the implications of rising inflation, as it may erode the purchasing power of the US dollar and affect the financial well-being of individuals and the economy at large. 

🎻 Microsoft crypto wallet? The crypto wallet, called “Mandolin,” is integrated into the browser, and no one knew it was there. Well, maybe Microsoft did, but they weren’t sharing. The researcher found it by checking some internal APIs because that’s just what they do for fun. What’s going on with this mysterious wallet? Is Microsoft trying to sneak into the crypto game? Are they planning a big move, or did they just forget to tell anyone about it? No idea – we’ll have to wait and see.

😐 Former BitMEX CEO and crypto veteran Arthur Hayes thinks the Federal Reserve’s new Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) will cause a “hated” Bitcoin rally. Hayes wrote on his blog, “The ensuing Bitcoin rally will be one of the most hated ever. How can Bitcoin and the crypto markets in general rally sharply after all the bad things that happened in 2022? Didn’t people learn Bitcoin, and those associated with it are scumbags? Aren’t people afraid of the narrative that Bitcoin caused the failure of large banks and almost consumed the US banking system?”

👍 Bitcoin is the best-performing asset YTD: Goldman Sachs ($GS). According to Goldman Sachs, Bitcoin ($BTC) the best-performing asset, with a jaw-dropping 51% gain in year-to-date absolute returns. It’s left everything else in the dust – IT, communication services, consumer discretionary, Russell 1000 Growth, gold, and even the S&P 500. Its risk-adjusted return (Sharpe ratio) is an impressive 1.9, too! Of course, there are skeptics out there who think it might drop, but with the US banking system in crisis and the six largest US banks losing nearly $100 billion in market valuation since the beginning of 2023, according to many analysts Bitcoin is acting as a hedge against uncertainty. 

🎮 Sony has introduced cross-system NFT trading for PlayStation users. Gamers will be able to buy, sell, and trade in-game assets using non-fungible tokens (NFTs). This innovative feature enhances the gaming experience by allowing players to own and monetize unique digital items across various games and platforms. The move highlights Sony’s commitment to embracing emerging technologies and adapting to the growing popularity of NFTs within the gaming industry – and it’s also nice to control a traded NFT market within your own ecosystem. 

🗼 Brigitte Macron, wife of French President Emmanuel Macron, is apparently an NFT enthusiast. In a recent interview, she discussed the potential benefits of Non-Fungible Tokens for the art world and expressed concerns over US regulations pushing the crypto industry abroad. She highlighted the importance of embracing new technologies like NFTs to promote artistic creation and support cultural institutions while emphasizing the need for more favorable regulations to avoid losing innovation and talent to other countries.

🖼️ Bitcoin ($BTC) ordinal NFTs have become a trending asset, with more than 500,000 NFTs minted in the last two months. This popularity has led creators to switch from blockchains like Ethereum ($ETH) to mint NFTs on the Bitcoin network. Despite the ease of creating and managing these NFTs through wallets like Hiro, Sparrow, and UniSat Wallet, concerns persist over their impact on the Bitcoin network. Critics argue that ordinal NFTs threaten the network’s privacy, security, and efficiency, as storing data like images, videos, and games leads to congestion and increased transaction fees.

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Credits & Feedback

Today’s Litepaper was written by Jon Morgan. Let him know how he did: