Did We Just Witness A Bullish Slingshot?

What is a bullish slingshot, and why should we care? Today we’re looking at three tweets from Ryan Detrick of the Carson Group, who is making a bullish case for stocks.

In his first tweet, Ryan noted that January is seasonally a strong month during a pre-election year. And this year didn’t disappoint, with the S&P 500 gaining 6.2% in January. That’s the index’s best January since 2019 (7.9%) and 1989 (7.1%). 📆

In his next tweet, he points out that pre-election years typically see strong first halves of the year as well. Combine that with many Wall Street professionals expecting the opposite, and you’ve got quite the contrarian case. 🐂

In his third tweet, Ryan brings it all home, where he points out that a strong January performance following a negative year has historically yielded impressive full-year returns.

He does note that the sample size is only five times, but all five have been positive, with a median return of 28.9%. 🤩

Much like the contrarian charts we discussed yesterday, it’s hard to decide on these data points alone. Whether or not we see the market truly “slingshot” higher remains to be seen. But at the very least, this historical context gives market participants something to think about as they approach the coming months. 🤔

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