$SPY after 3 months of sideways action (since we broke over the 200EMA), we finally broke out this week, only to fail back in to the consolidation zone. Does this mean we are doomed? Nope, probably just a mini shake out to feed the bears before we breakout towards ATH (See AMD Wednesday breakout, Thursday shaker, and Friday ripper if you want to understand recent action). I know you must thinking from false moves comes fast moves, and we sort of did, but not really the spike in volume that I would like to see and we held over the island gap down area on this 'breakdown'. I'd imagine we open with some weakness (back down to the 20days) and then continue to show relative strength the rest of the week. Some big earnings coming up this week that can really change the direction of the market, but don't think you will, probably end up being a mixed bag of results. If you are trading options, reduce size, as this sideways action is going to cause draw downs larger than you want.
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$SPY weekly still very constructive, long tail last week to close above the June 1st week close. Tried to follow through on that move and failed to close above last weeks close. Ended up being a doji on the weekly, but within the body of last week, which is a good sign as this was on lower weekly volume, actually the lowest weekly volume since Feb 17th week. Weekly RSI in a bit of cup and handle formation and MACD cross still in tact. We'll need more data for better analytics, but looking constructive. At some point in the next month or 2, I am expecting for a move to retest the daily rising 200EMA/SMA, but not seeing the signs yet for that. That could change Monday :)
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