With a second vaccine in the news today you have to wonder who will need the vaccine by the time it’s widely available. COVID is now spreading through the population at a rate of about 1% every two weeks. Between now and April when the vaccines are expected to be widely available, about an additional 11% of the population will have been affected and won’t need it. With 10% of the population having been already infected, that’s 21% of the population that won’t require it because they will have already developed antibodies. Of course first responders, the elderly in nursing homes, and the military will be required to get the shot, but I suspect that’s about another 10%, or 30M doses. That leaves about 65% (about 200M) of the population not inoculated. The unknown is how many of those will stand in line for the shots.
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