Well I’ll have to disagree. 2021 had a return on facility of -27%, say this year is probably looking at -20% best case and the following year I’ll assume -7.5%. Now they have to make MUCH more on the back end to make up for the crazy cash burn upfront. After their lowered guidance on facilities going forward last year I estimate an unlevered ROI of 10% best case. Discounting all those returns back at a normal 10% rate brings the DCF value of this facility to a whopping $20 million. At a market cap of 391m, this is priced at the Fair value of 19 identical facilities. Not even factoring the debt on those facilities.
Btw this model was ONLY looking at cost of goods sold and assuming no operations costs at all (which is being generous).