- XRP has remained in a sustained downtrend since October, with lower highs and weak on-chain activity confirming a distribution-driven market structure.
- Exchange inflow spikes during key price declines signal persistent sell pressure, while inconsistent outflows point to a lack of sustained accumulation.
- Negative price–DAA divergence and capped RSI also highlight weak underlying demand, suggesting XRP may remain under pressure unless on-chain participation and outflows improve.
In addition to price action, Ripple’s XRP (XRP) has been in a downward trend since October last year, driven by weak on-chain data.
XRP entered a structural decline, marked by lower highs and persistent selling pressure, after reaching a peak in Q4. The price is currently consolidating near multi-month lows around $1.30 as this bearish regime continues into Q1.
This trend is crucially confirmed by exchange flows. Exchange inflows frequently spiked during periods of price weakness, especially in late January and early February, indicating that holders were transferring assets onto exchanges in preparation for selling. The idea that rallies have been met with distribution rather than accumulation is supported by the close alignment of these inflow bursts with local price breakdowns.
Outflow activity, on the other hand, has been erratic and reactive, frequently peaking only following extreme volatility events. Instead of consistent capital rotation into XRP, this asymmetry between inflows and outflows suggests that defensive positioning dominates the market.
A significant turning point came in late January, when a sharp increase in volatility set off a series of inflows and outflows. Although the price momentarily stabilized, the absence of prolonged outflows after this event suggests that short-term positioning and liquidations, rather than long-term accumulation, were the primary drivers of the move.
XRP's price was at $1.33, down 0.4% in the last 24 hours. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around XRP remained in the ‘bearish’ territory, while chatter levels remained at ‘low’ over the past day.
Late-Stage Consolidation
Furthermore, RSI has consistently failed to return to bullish territory during this period, remaining capped in lower ranges. RSI only reached neutral levels before rolling over, even during brief rebounds in March. This is a sign of a bearish market structure.
Furthermore, for the majority of the observed period, the price–DAA divergence for XRP has remained extremely negative, suggesting that network activity has not kept up with price changes. User participation did not significantly increase, even during brief rebounds, indicating weak underlying demand.
More recently, exchange flow spikes have intensified once more until late March, with rising inflows and outflows but no discernible upward price movement. This kind of activity, which is usually observed in late-stage consolidation phases within a larger downtrend, frequently reflects increased churn without directional conviction.
Overall, the alignment of the price structure and on-chain behavior indicates that XRP is still operating in a distribution-driven market. The asset will likely remain under pressure until exchange inflows slow and are replaced by consistent outflows, which indicate true accumulation.
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