$IBIO UK COVID-19 vaccine trial may fail due to low transmission in population There is a 50% chance the trial may result in 'no result.' jpost.com/international/uk-... “It is a race, yes. But it's not a race against the other guys," he said. "It's a race against the virus disappearing, and against time. We said earlier in the year that there was an 80% chance of developing an effective vaccine by September. But at the moment, there’s a 50 per cent chance that we get no result at all. We’re in the bizarre position of wanting COVID to stay, at least for a little while. But cases are declining." The Oxford team is not the only facing this predicament. So far eight potential vaccines have reached the stage of human trials - four in China, two in the US, one in Germany and the Oxford team. With cases dwindling, all of the teams are looking for hotspots globally where they can conduct their trials.