Monday links: global margin call
- Posted by: abnormalreturns, February 8th, 2010 at 12:30 pm
- Comments: 0
“(A)ny timer of the U.S. stock market who did not beat the market during 2000-2009 has some explaining to do.” (CXO Advisory Group)
“It may be hard to believe, but 35% of the S&P 500’s gains since the start of 2009 have now been erased over a span of less than 14 trading days.” (Bespoke)
Is the secular bull market in bonds coming to an end? (Big Picture)
Why haven’t higher sovereign CDS rates been reflected in bond yields? (FT Alphaville)
PIMCO favors emerging market (and German) bonds. (WSJ)
Peaks in leading economic indicators are not great for market returns. (The Money Game also FT Alphaville)
Why is lumber continuing to power higher? (The Pragmatic Capitalist)
Listening Nouriel Roubini would have been a mistake last year. (Telegraph UK)
The volatility of the VIX has surged. (Daily Options Report also WSJ)
ETFs have joined the rest of the mutual fund complex in a battle of branding. (New Rules of Investing)
Some Bogleheads are anxious that Vanguard is getting into alternative investments. (FT)
Roger Nusbaum, “Investment products aren’t greed-causing or speculative in and of themselves. They may create the means with which to express those behaviors.” (TheStreet)
“For all the concern over the $1.6 trillion U.S. budget deficit and record debt load, the dollar is as valuable now as 35 years ago.” (Bloomberg)
Where will the Euro bottom? (VIX and More)
Simon Johnson, “The euro depreciates, the dollar strengthens, and our path to recovery starts to run more uphill.” (Baseline Scenario)
Is Greece the first step in a “global margin call“? (naked capitalism)
John Thain takes over CIT Group (CIT). (NYTimes, naked capitalism, FT Alphaville)
Felix Salmon, “It’s crucial, in financial markets, that investors walk into risky asset classes with their eyes open, rather than kidding themselves that they can simply hedge those risks away by buying a fancy financial product from Citigroup.” (Reuters also Risk)
Bryan Caplan, “None of this means that mood is the whole story. Mood, market conditions, and policy all interact.” (EconLog)
Deflation is back on the table. (Econbrowser)
Males aged 25-54 are increasingly not employed. (Brad DeLong)
Is a value-added tax or VAT the inevitable fix to the budget deficit? (CNNMoney)
Economic populism is a function of the poor economy. (New Yorker)
Is Canada facing its own housing bubble? (WSJ)
“I take issue with Krugman’s “partisanization” of economics – if I could coin a new word” (Kid Dynamite)
“Despite all my jurisprudential research, I have been unable to locate a statutory basis for the right to cheap insurance.” (finem respice)
How winning streaks end: “Winners become sinners when confidence turns into complacency and arrogance.” (HBR)
Jeff Jarvis, “If you are selling a scarcity — an inventory — of any nonphysical goods today, stop, turn around, and start selling value — outcomes — instead. Or you’re screwed.” (Buzz Machine)
Ten reasons Sherlock Holmes is the ideal VC. (peHUB)
Check out who made this “all star team of online finance.” (New Rules of Investing)
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Sunday links: symbiotic investments
abnormalreturns, February 7th, 2010 at 8:45 am, Comments: 0Joshua Brown, “China and Brazil are quite possibly the most symbiotic investment story going right now.” (The Reformed Broker)
More oversold readings. (Bespoke)
Investment sentiment at week-end. (Trader’s Narrative, The Technical Take)
Doug Kass thinks it might be time to start getting greedy again. (TheStreet)
Nobody’s perfect. Paulson’s gold-focused hedge fund reportedly lost 14% in January. (BusinessWeek also Clusterstock)
David [...]
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Friday links: shadow banking
abnormalreturns, February 5th, 2010 at 12:49 pm, Comments: 0The percentage of stocks trading above their respective moving averages are getting close to solidly oversold levels. (Trader Mike, Bespoke also Quantifiable Edges)
Bearish sentiment is on the rise. (The Pragmatic Capitalist)
Pullback or new bear market? (VIX and More)
Adam Warner, “Well, you don’t need a chart to tell you volatility is percolating.” (Daily Options Report, ibid)
Post [...]
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Thursday links: performance persistence
abnormalreturns, February 4th, 2010 at 12:31 pm, Comments: 0Investor sentiment took a hit during the market correction. (Bespoke)
What the timber market is telling us about the housing economy. (Minyanville)
Mutual fund investors are still positioned quite conservatively. (The Pragmatic Capitalist)
Altman says bond default rates could fall but 2011 could be trouble if the economy doesn’t turn. (DealBook)
Can you base an investment strategy on the [...]
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Wednesday links: low yield conundrum
abnormalreturns, February 3rd, 2010 at 11:43 am, Comments: 0Why are government bond yields so low? (Mandel on Innovation and Growth also Trader’s Narrative)
Would a stock split move Apple (AAPL) stock higher? (A Dash of Insight)
Commodities had had a rough start to the year. (StockCharts Blog)
Another oversold metric. (VIX and More)
A very long run view of the stock market. (Crossing Wall Street)
What you exclude [...]
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Tuesday links: missing micro-caps
abnormalreturns, February 2nd, 2010 at 12:41 pm, Comments: 0Richard Ferri, “What is the problem with micro-cap index funds and ETFs? The problem is that there are no true micro-cap index funds or ETFs. They don’t exist.” (Forbes)
Fidelity’s lower commissions and commission-free trades in 25 iShares ETFs advances the online broker price war. (Marketwatch, ETF Trends, Morningstar)
What is the “third generation ETF platform“? (FT [...]
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Monday links: nuanced returns
abnormalreturns, February 1st, 2010 at 12:45 pm, Comments: 0Where’s the bubble: bonds or equities? (Big Picture)
The junk phase of the rally is over. What next? (The Reformed Broker)
2010 will be a year of “nuance” in asset class returns. (Capital Spectator also Investment Postcards, EconomPic Data)
How much stock should we put into the small cap effect? (MarketSci Blog also New Rules of Investing)
The bulls [...]
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Sunday links: January hangover
abnormalreturns, January 31st, 2010 at 8:33 am, Comments: 0The market pullback is getting a bit nasty. (VIX and More)
The so-called January indicator in perspective. (dshort)
The state of investor sentiment at week-end. (Trader’s Narrative, The Technical Take)
Your equity portfolio allocations are all off. (WSJ)
In praise of home bias. (Aleph Blog)
Why are so many companies hoarding cash instead of paying out dividends? (Barron’s)
Some much needed [...]
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Trading sabbaticals
abnormalreturns, January 29th, 2010 at 3:22 pm, Comments: 0An investment in knowledge pays the best interest. – Benjamin Franklin
Have you ever taken a structured break from your trading, not unlike that of an academic sabbatical?
For some one who spends their time tracking and trading the markets it seems like there is never enough time to do the reading and research necessary to advance [...]
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Friday links: rich fund, poor fund
abnormalreturns, January 29th, 2010 at 12:22 pm, Comments: 0Equity fund managers are asset rich and cash poor. (Sentiment’s Edge)
A historical review of equity allocations. (Big Picture)
What happens when the S&P 500 goes from a 50 day high to a 50 day low in 8 days. (Quantifiable Edges)
The S&P 500 Material Sector (XLB) is decidedly oversold. (Bespoke)
You can’t chart the VIX like you would [...]
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