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    pdenlinger

    Paul Denlinger
    Hong Kong/Beijing

    Joined Aug 27, 2009

    http://www.chinavortex.com

    Analyst in Beijing/Hong Kong. Specialties: China (the country), $AAPL, $GOOG Read my articles in Business Insider and Forbes.com The China Tracker

    1. pdenlinger
      Also means that non-wealthy Chinese will cut way back on discretionary consumer spending just when Beijing needs its most
      May. 24 at 12:53 PM
    2. pdenlinger
      If Chinese are paying back loans, it means that China is in early stages of balance sheet recession just like Japan in 1990
      May. 24 at 12:52 PM
    3. pdenlinger
      Dragged out decision-making process in party means China growth will slow w/o inflationary policies. Greatest threat: inflationary overshoot
      May. 24 at 12:16 PM
    4. pdenlinger
      If China were to get money to private sector, would take 2-3 years to show results. Faraway water can't put out nearby fire.
      May. 24 at 12:14 PM
    5. pdenlinger
      If Chinese govt chooses to inflate, where will the money go? SOEs don't work. Private sector best hope, but banks won't lend to it.
      May. 24 at 12:05 PM
    6. pdenlinger
      China will have to let the inflation genie out of bottle to maintain growth. Will it? Premier Wen Jiabao must decide in his last year.
      May. 24 at 11:49 AM
    7. pdenlinger
      Now that China has so much debt, it wants yuan to become reserve currency. Makes perfect sense.
      May. 22 at 3:18 PM
    8. pdenlinger
      China 2012 = Greece 2004 (except the economy is a little bit bigger.) Can China keep growth engine going? That's the question
      May. 21 at 12:30 AM
    9. pdenlinger
      Expecting more Chinese deals like Wanda Group purchase of AMC theaters. Chinese cos have to use money or lose it. It's all funny money
      May. 21 at 12:23 AM
    10. pdenlinger
      Expect CN govt officials to switch from "Our system's superior" to "The evil west planned our destruction all along"
      May. 20 at 1:56 PM
    11. pdenlinger
      If econ performance turns south in China, it's always west screwing the Chinese people. Not bad party economic, development policies
      May. 20 at 1:53 PM
    12. pdenlinger
      Increased nationalism, anti-foreign sentiment an early predictor of poor econ performance in China: http://stks.co/3uQA
      May. 20 at 1:47 PM
    13. pdenlinger
      @Honest_T $ADBE has positioned Flash as desktop app only now. Sounds better than saying it's dead, but same thing.
      May. 20 at 1:42 PM
    14. pdenlinger
      Premier Wen Jiabao gets three-month leading trade data from Alibaba's Jack Ma; he sounds very worried
      May. 20 at 1:23 PM
    15. pdenlinger
      Looks like Hugh Hendry is in a good position shorting Japanese companies with big China exposure
      May. 20 at 11:59 AM
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