Will EUR/USD break under new transatlantic pressures?
Monetary divergence remains the main driver. The Fed stays restrictive on sticky service inflation while US demand outpaces subdued European growth.
The ECB hiked twice this year, but the rate gap still favors the dollar. Lagarde exits in February, early. French debt pressures and eurozone fiscal fragmentation add strain.
Energy vulnerability and US tariffs keep the geopolitical overlay active.
Global banks still hold dollars for crisis liquidity, yet structural risks are rising.
$EURUSD is the test of Western economic leadership.
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