BluntForceOptions
$EYPT New starter long in EYPT, a company now trading at a third of its cash after Monday’s 85% wipeout.
Quick context for anyone new to the name: EyePoint ran two identical Phase 3s of DURAVYU, a 6 month TKI insert, in wet AMD. LUGANO missed non-inferiority in Aug and took the stock from the mid-teens to the mid-single digits. Monday, LUCIA missed the same primary EP and the stock closed down 85%, $2.99 to $0.44. Same morning, EyePoint announced a 53% workforce cut and an early end to the wet AMD trials to prioritize the DME program, which reads out in Q4 2027.
I picked up a starter around $0.41.
The math:
• ~$118M cash and short-term investments at 9/30 (company estimate, 8-K filed Monday)
• ~88.8M economic shares (86.2M common plus 2.6M pre-funded warrants)
• ~$1.33 cash per share vs. a $0.45 stock. The market is valuing the company at about a third of its cash
• Negative EV of roughly $78M. No funded debt; the ~$22M liability is leases
• 12M options outstanding at a $12.75 weighted-avg strike. No comp-plan overhang
Why I think it's overdone:
• Monday traded ~184M shares, more than twice the share count. Looks like specialist money liquidating, not price discovery
• The drug did something. 38% reduction in treatment burden, 52% of eyes supplement-free through week 56, clean safety with redosing. It missed a vision non-inferiority bar. It did not throw a safety signal
• DME is a different disease, with an inflammatory component vorolanib also hits through IL-6/JAK1. Phase 2 VERONA showed +7.1 letters and 73% supplement-free vs. 50% for control at week 24
• Both DME Phase 3s are fully enrolled at 551 patients. The hard part is done, and at this price the market is pricing that readout at zero
• The cost cut had to happen, and they did it the same day
Tell of the tape: RSI is 15 on the daily, 23 on the weekly and about 10 on the 4-hour, with stochastics pinned near zero on all three. That’s a capitulation profile across timeframes. The 50-day at $4.68 doesn’t matter for now. This trades off Monday’s range.
Levels I'm watching:
• $0.40 -- Monday's low and the 52-wk low. My line for the starter
• $0.475 -- today's high
• $0.55–$0.60 -- Monday's open and high. A reclaim puts the gap-day shorts offside
• $1.00 -- Jefferies' and RBC's new targets, and the Nasdaq listing line
Sizing: The cash pile isn’t static. Q3 burned roughly $75M, and Monday’s release dropped the runway guidance that ran in every prior quarter. The Q3 report should show how far $118M stretches and whether a raise comes before the DME data. That’s why this is a starter. I’ll add on strength or on a better-than-feared burn number. If the fundamentals change, I’m out.
Bottom line: a third of cash after a binary miss, a fully enrolled Phase 3 in a better-suited indication, and a 53% headcount cut announced day one. The pendulum swung all the way. I’ll take the cheap option.
Just sharing my work. Check everything yourself. Not financial advice.
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