ES_F E-Mini S&P 500 Futures

$ES_F Update 2 After breaking below the daily Pivot (also prior Balance low), the selloff intensified & all of the downside targets for the day were achieved. The market also reached this week’s final downside target as outlined in the Sunday Post, which was today’s final downside target as well. However, the market went one step further & reached the next level down as shown on the hourly chart posted in the plan. For now, this level held precisely & the market began moving higher. Price is approaching the low on October 1st & this area could be an immediate support. As mentioned in today’s plan, the Sellers were still in control since price remained below this week’s line in the sand & that yesterday’s recovery was vulnerable $SPX $SPY

$ES_F Update The Bearish trigger level outlined in the plan was broken at the open & the market sold off reaching the 1st downside target, which aligns with the daily 50MA. This area was initially defended but after a failed bounce, price has extended lower to the next target at the daily Pivot (also prior Balance low). The market has reached a strong support territory, so let’s see if it holds. If not, could see more downside. See more downside targets in the plan 👇 $SPX $SPY

$ES_F Update 2 The market achieved acceptance above the prior Balance low (also OVN high) which was required for the Bullish case & the 1st upside target was reached. Note that this level aligns with the daily 50MA & is right below the 20MA. For now, price has rejected this area & the market has pulled back to the Bullish trigger area where some consolidation is taking place. Buyers must defend this area for the upside, if not, the selling could resume. The failed breakdown early on was a Bullish signal, but the Buyers need to hold the prior Balance low for the recovery to continue. $SPX $SPY

$ES_F 7835 key level here or could get more hectic. So far an initial reaction off support

$ES_F 7754 major pivot was just tested and not breached so far. If 49 and 54 pivots breached, I am expecting a fast move to next support 7738 quickly. There are now a few untested left open: 7873.75, 7781 and 7789. Mark them down, once it reverses these levels will get retested. I just moved my stop further down from 7789 to 7773. 77 pt locked in now. Note that this 7781 breach leading to 7719 is still in the cards, the path to this level now is the only question left open.

SPX didn’t budge today so I am not going to update the plan or the levels for tomorrow. We have CPI so hopefully the volatility increases and maybe we’ll see the market pick a direction. Keep an eye on NQ_F as we are seeing a Bear flag into the 21MA which isn’t a good look for Bulls but price has held the tests of that level so far. Check the plan from yesterday for the ES_F/SPX levels and posts from today for NQ_F levels. Enjoy the rest of your day and we’ll see where things stand when we get into RTH tomorrow. $ES_F, $SPX, $SPY, $NQ_F, $QQQ

$ES_F BEFORE: Group 2 Weekend path (03.22.2026) Daily chart from the March weekend update. Cycle completed at the peak and a W-X-Y Double Three Elliott Wave Correction was in progress. It was expected to complete in the blue box, where buyers were expected to appear and resume the rally, or produce at least a 3-wave reaction higher. Right Side was up. Corrective move expected to complete in the blue box. We Do Not Recommend Selling made clear what not to do, and where buyers were expected to appear.

$ES_F Shorted 7827 on retest short after the close below 7827, but trimmed at 7820 untested k10 and if k10 7820/30 zone regains will be closing last 1/2 27 short as on 7820 regain, 7810 could be the low for now. Target below is 7813.75 on last 1/2 size if no one regain on k10 (7828.75 untested above now and 13.75 below)

$ES_F Nice run bulls, bears finally cracked it. Overnight down 📉🔴 7700s retest #sp500 #futurestrading $SPY $SPX $DXY $QQQ

$ES_F all pivots including 7715 lost and lost 19/41 bounce area. I would not be in a rush to get long, the only level that can save this is a close above 7749 on hourly. stay out of long below.

ES_F had a nice look below and fail of the 50MA(7724) and the bottom of our channel today. We are now testing the 21MA(7787) as we trade early in globex. Bulls need to reclaim this level and ideally the 8MA(7812) and 7818 to regain some momentum. Bears want to see a failure here to trade back below 7770 and 7750. Keep an eye on NQ_F as price is trying to reclaim the 50MA(30144) and the top of a previous range (white box). NQ_F is obviously looking weaker than ES_F and is in danger of a 8MA/21MA crossover if Bulls can’t rally this back above 30272, 30415. I will update the plan and the levels for ES_F/SPX later on in globex. Hope you caught the setups today as I sent out Notes in real time! $ES_F, $SPY, $SPX, $NQ_F, $QQQ

Just an FYI….SPX has a gap fill from the first trading day of the month down at 7666 and the 50MA(7676) isn’t far above that. Immediate support is at 7700 but watch those levels if this weakness continues into tomorrow. $ES_F, $SPX, $SPY

London close verdict: none of the morning paths earned a clean A/B/C win. The tape stayed offered, but it did not break structure. ES is 7836.75, NQ 30662.25, SPY 776.60, and QQQ 741.39. The pressure is real; the follow-through is incomplete. SPY is holding above its 775.66 gamma flip after trading lower on the day. That matters more than the negative point change. The 785 call wall remains overhead and 750 is the lower structural boundary. This is still a positive-gamma board, which favors containment while SPY remains near the flip. The market has not converted the morning weakness into a clean downside expansion. QQQ is the weaker piece. At 741.39 it is below the 743.94 flip, with a negative-gamma structure and a 760 call wall well overhead. The 700 put wall is distant, but the gap between price and the flip keeps technology from providing the stabilization SPY is trying to show. SPY is above its hinge. QQQ is below its own. That split is the tape. $ES_F

Wednesday premarket, and the overnight tape is telling a different story than the Tuesday close. SPY went out at 779.09, up 4.26 on the day, and the Q's at 759.66, up 3.46. Since then ES has given back 21 points to 7853.0 and NQ has shed 186.50 to 31296.75. YM is off 167 at 51611.0 and RTY is down 8.30 at 2834.0. That is a broad overnight fade, not a single-index event, and it comes with VIX ticking up 0.60 to 15.61. Not a vol event, but the direction of vol agrees with the direction of futures, and that is the first thing I look at. When vol and price move together overnight, the fade is real money, not thin-book noise. Here is the structural problem for the open. SPY's gamma flip sits at 779.23. The cash close at 779.09 is fourteen cents under it, already on the wrong side by a hair, and the dealer model is still labeled positive gamma with a put/call ratio of 1.297. $ES_F

$ES_F Held the Weekly 20 SMA four times since end of July. Will it be different this time? We shall see!! Watch for a close below 20 SMA = 7687.

$ES_F I welcome the "so many lines criticism." Hey, whatever works right?! Targeting 7700 area:

$ES_F pullback reached another Daily 🔵 Blue Box area back in March, offering a strong buying opportunity. Allowed longs to secure risk‑free positions. #Elliottwave #Trading #SPX

$ES_F $CL_F got that divine timing, that 1111 news, It's like the collective can manifest these situations. Naw but we gotta be mindful of the disconnect from all these contracts that some be offering to the physical reality of our oil. Like what if the world wants to lock in oil prices with futures for the next couple of months out? I dunno if we can pull a whole negative oil type situation. And you know it's getting serious when the vets and military people all participating on YouTube with oil and diesel markets, that's definitely a market that's a huge concern for any country in the world. Disrupt their energy consumption, or disrupt their communications, War these days isn't only about things that go boom. Anyways these just my thoughts going into major time cycles for the remainder of the year, 0

$ES_F $CL_F not that I'm cheering or hoping for any of this chaos...I'm just a participant, a small one at that. But even those small individual lots can create resonance in these markets. Their power in numbers can definitely be amplified, especially during overnight session. Thats when most the inventory rebalanced and positioning happens, right? Anyways this is all in time for our big time analysis coming tomorrow and over the weekend, I can't tell you what's going to happen, because I don't know. All I know is man... it's one of those times . From here til the end of the year. There's clusters of these overlapping time cycles, So, it'll definitely be interesting, they always are. 9

$ES_F $CL_F There just seems to be many paths to how this goes wrong, and we cant blame it on bulls or bears or participants. Our myopic vision and lack of planning tho is aligning just in time tho with the centennial of great depression. I'm pretty sure the country knows.... I wonder if institutional money told not to aggressively buy oil market so they dont accidentally set off the cascade... they definitely have the ability to do so. Then it'd be oil and diesel setting off the food and supply line situation , putting pressure on our bonds and inflation... shit Noone will want to hold stocks and that all will be equivalent to shit hitting the fan. And man if we have one hurricane in the gulf that disrupts production or refineries... thatd be mother nature calling our bluff....while banks offering all these contracts for oil?!? It'll be catastrophic the day the world finds that it's cheaper to go to futures market and take delivery on oil from cushing OK. 9