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Citi warned that the U.S. housing downturn will deepen as 30-year mortgage rates approach 7.5%, further weakening construction and demand. September single-family housing permits fell to 845,000 from 880,000 in August, the lowest level since 2023, while single-family housing starts dropped to 859,000 from 990,000, their lowest since 2025. Total housing starts declined to 1.221 million from June’s peak of 1.439 million, while total permits remained at 1.4 million.
Residential fixed investment has subtracted from quarterly GDP growth in seven of the past nine quarters. The sector contracted 3.3% over the past year, following a 2.3% decline the previous year. September data suggest the downturn was accelerating even before the latest mortgage-rate increases fully affected the market.
The NAHB homebuilder confidence index fell to a 14-year low in September as weak demand drove up new-home inventories. At the current sales pace.
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