- Hayes said he’s structurally bullish on Bitcoin in the long term, but if he had a $1 to invest, it wouldn’t go into the apex cryptocurrency right now.
- According to him, BTC’s price could break below $60,000 if tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue to escalate.
- He stated that he only plans on buying more Bitcoin once the Federal Reserve starts printing money, which usually happens after every major conflict in the Middle East.
Maelstrom founder and chief investment officer Arthur Hayes said that while he’s structurally bullish on Bitcoin (BTC) in the long term, that’s not where he’s putting his money right now.
“If I had $1 to invest right now, would I be putting it into Bitcoin?” he said during a recent podcast with Natalie Brunell. “No, I would wait.” According to Hayes, there’s a real risk that Bitcoin’s price will dip below $60,000 again if the war between the U.S. and Iran drags on.
“I think that they’re in a situation where the longer this carries on, there could be massive selloff in equities and Bitcoin might fall a bit lower,” he said. “It might break $60,000 that could be a cascading of liquidations down.”
Bitcoin’s price fell 1.8% in the last 24 hours to around $69,300. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around the apex cryptocurrency fell to ‘neutral’ from ‘bullish’ territory over the past day.
Is War Good For Bitcoin?
Hayes stated that the outlook for Bitcoin remains uncertain in the near term and reiterated his thesis of ‘iOS warfare’ that initiating a war in Iran has become a “rite of passage” for U.S. Presidents, wherein Trump is no exception. More importantly, for Bitcoin, the Federal Reserve has printed money every time there’s been a conflict in the region.
“That’s what they do, they’ve done it for every other major Middle Eastern conflict, at least in my lifetime,” Hayes said. Despite the short-term risks, he believes prolonged military conflict could eventually support Bitcoin’s long-term outlook.
“I think the longer that this conflict goes on, the higher the likelihood that the Fed has to print money to support the American war machine,” Hayes said. “And, that’s when I’m going to buy Bitcoin.”
Demand For ‘Stateless Money’ Still Growing
Hayes said that the dynamic ultimately strengthens the case for decentralized assets. “If you’re saying war is good for Bitcoin, what you’re really saying is war means money printing and money printing is good for Bitcoin,” he said.
He added that the appeal of decentralized money has grown significantly since Bitcoin’s early days. “I think the need for stateless money is stronger now than it was in 2009 when the Genesis block was created,” Hayes said. Despite his caution in the short term, Hayes said his broader outlook remains bullish.
Bitcoin’s price has fallen around 45% from its October peak of over $126,000. So far this year, the apex cryptocurrency is down over 20%.
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