- According to McCullough, a drop to $54,000 would require a 127% gain for October peak buyers to recover losses.
- An ongoing poll on Stocktwits showed that most crypto traders are looking to buy more Bitcoin if it were to fall another 20% tomorrow.
- Some retail traders are citing oversold technical indicators and short squeeze potential as reasons for optimism.
Bitcoin (BTC) climbed back above $65,000 on Wednesday morning, recuperating from the selloff earlier this week, but retail traders who bought BTC at its October peak now still need the cryptocurrency to rally at least 90% in order to break even.
Bitcoin’s price gained 4.2% in the last 24 hours, trading at around $65,800 on Wednesday morning. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around the apex cryptocurrency improved to ‘neutral’ from ‘bearish’ territory over the past day.
Analysts Point To $62,000 Bounce Zone
According to Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, Bitcoin is likely to bounce at around $62,400 based on fractal math calculations – models that look for price patterns to spot trend reversals and analyze volatility.
Known for coining the phrase “markets crash at oversold levels” back in 2023, McCullough added that if Bitcoin goes “off the chart” to lower lows, its price could crash to $54,000. At that point, October peak buyers at $125,000 would need BTC to rally 127% in order to break even.
Retail Traders Signal Dip-Buying Appetite
An ongoing poll on Stocktwits showed that the crash is unlikely to deter retail traders from buying the dip. Nearly 60% of respondents said they are likely to buy more Bitcoin if its price drops 20% tomorrow, which would put its price below $54,000. Meanwhile, only 23% of traders said they would panic-sell, and another 3% said they would trim their holdings.
One user on the platform noted that Bitcoin’s five-year weekly RSI is flashing ‘oversold,’ not unlike the last cycle dip, and forecast a rally ahead.
Another user said that too many traders are betting against Bitcoin, which could lead to a short squeeze. They added that some investors could also be looking to reallocate their gains from metal trades into cryptocurrency after their recent bull bull.
Bitcoin is down almost 25% this year and has lost nearly 50% of its value since the October record high.
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