- Bloomberg Intelligence estimated that Coinbase’s stablecoin revenue could increase two to seven times if adoption accelerates and legislation remains favorable.
- Stablecoin revenue accounted for approximately 19% of Coinbase’s total revenue in 2025, largely driven by its revenue-sharing agreement with Circle on USDC reserves.
- Wall Street is concerned that if Washington restricts exchanges from offering stablecoin rewards, it could potentially impact Coinbase’s business model.
- However, CEO Brian Armstrong has contented that a ban on stablecoin yields could actually be a more profitable move for the company.
Coinbase (COIN) shares fell in overnight night on Monday despite Bloomberg Intelligence estimating that the company’s stablecoin revenue could surge sevenfold if adoption explodes and regulation doesn’t get in the way.
COIN’s stock moved 1.88% lower in overnight trade after a drop of 6.48% in the regular session to around $160, down nearly 30% this year. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around the stock remained in ‘bearish’ territory
Coinbase Stablecoin Growth Hinges On Regulatory Clarity
Coinbase generated around $1.35 billion in stablecoin revenue in 2025, which accounted for around 19% of the company’s total revenue that year. The bulk of that revenue came from its 50% income sharing deal with Circle (CRCL) on USDC (USDC) reserves.
According to the report, that income could increase two to seven times once adoption accelerates under the GENIUS Act. However, negotiations over the market structure bill in Washington could bar crypto exchanges like Coinbase from offering rewards tied to stablecoins. If that were to happen, the its revenue-sharing agreement with Circle is likely to be impacted, the report said.
The ability to continue to pay stablecoin rewards is just one of several factors for Coinbase to reach seven-fold growth. “They would need favorable details of the eventual crypto bill,” wrote Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Paul Gulberg.
Wall Street Signals More Downside Risk
However, not everyone agrees that regulation moves will turn out in Coinbase’s favour. According to Monness Crespi analyst Gus Gala, the probability assigned to the CLARITY Act passing "remains too high in certain corners." In a note to investors on Monday cited by TheFly, she added that clarity on the stablecoin loophole remaining open in the next draft of CLARITY Act "is far too optimistically priced in."
The drop in COIN’s stock came Gala told investors to short the shares, anticipating the stock price to fall further. Gala attributed Monday’s drop in Coinbase shares to President Donald Trump's tariff moves, continued exchange traded fund outflows (ETFs), and "signs of whales moving HODLs onto exchanges." The firm reiterated a ‘Sell’ rating on the stock with a $120 price target – a potential downside of 25% from Monday’s close.
On Friday, Baird analyst Robert Bamberger lowered the price target on Coinbase to $165 from $240 and kept a ‘Neutral’ rating on the shares.
Coinbase CEO Sees Upside Even Without Stablecoin Rewards
According to Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, the company could see more profit if it were prohibited from offering yield on stablecoins.
“It would actually make us more profitable because we would just continue to receive the economics from Circle,” Armstrong told investors in latest earnings call. “Today, we pass majority of that along to the customer. If we were prohibited from doing that, it would ironically would just make us more profitable."
The AI-driven selloff in the stock market added to pressure on COIN, with weakness spreading across digital assets. The overall cryptocurrency market fell 2.4% in the last 24 hours to $2.25 trillion. Bitcoin’s (BTC) price tumbled 3.3% to under $63,000, leading losses among crypto majors. CoinGlass data showed $380 million in liquidations over the last 24 hours, with nearly $290 million coming from long bets alone.
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