- The company said it expected full-year 2026 revenue of between $135 million and $165 million, compared to analysts’ expectations of $142.55 million.
- The Virginia-based company said it had ended 2025 with the “strongest financial position” in history, and had also reduced debt by over 90%.
- Wall Street has a 12-month average target of $5.33 on BBAI shares, representing an upside of about 22% from current price levels.
Shares of BigBear.ai Holdings Inc. (BBAI) climbed more than 8% on Friday, poised to close higher for the third consecutive day after posting fourth-quarter (Q4) results on March 2.
The Virginia-based company posted a 38% decline in quarterly revenue to $27.3 million, compared to Wall Street’s estimates of $33.3 million, according to data from Fiscal.ai, primarily due to lower volume on Army programs.
However, the company said it had ended 2025 with the “strongest financial position” in history, and had also reduced debt by over 90%.
Shares of BBAI have dipped more than 25% this year.
What Does Retail Think?
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around BBAI shares jumped from ‘bullish’ to ‘extremely bullish’ over the past 24 hours amid ‘high’ message volumes.
One bullish user suggested that investors were focusing more on the improved balance sheet and long-term growth, rather than the latest Q4 results.
Another user called the shares an “easy buy” that would triple investments.
A third bullish user said they were waiting on fresh news of more government money going into BBAI for national security.
Analysts’ Take
Wall Street has a 12-month average target of $5.33 on BBAI shares, representing an upside of about 22% from current price levels of $4.36 at the time of writing.
Earlier this week, Cantor Fitzgerald lowered its price target on BigBear.ai to $5 from $6 and maintained a ‘Neutral’ rating on the shares. H.C. Wainwright also cut the price target on BigBear.ai to $6 from $8 and kept a ‘Buy’ rating on the shares after its Q4 results. The firm said that the company's balance sheet improvements would provide greater flexibility to fund growth, but said lower sales estimates influenced the target cut.
Optimistic Start To 2026
As of Dec. 31, 2025, BigBear.ai reported it had a total cash and investments of $462 million, compared to a cash balance of $50.1 million, as of Dec. 31, 2024. The powerful cash position would give the company “freedom to invest in catalytic technologies,” it said in a statement.
The company also said it expected full-year 2026 revenue of between $135 million and $165 million, compared to analysts’ expectations of $142.55 million, according to data from Fiscal.ai.
Meanwhile, the company said it had settled the balance of the $125 million of 2029 Convertible notes via debt-to-equity conversion features in Jan. 2026, after having reduced debt by more than 90% in 2025.
BigBear.ai also noted that the U.S. War Department’s AI Acceleration Strategy, announced in Jan. 2026, would play to the company’s strengths, given its roster of national security customers and global partners that use its emerging tech. A majority of BigBear.ai’s business comes from U.S. federal agencies.
For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.