- UBS raised its price target on CF Industries to $140 from $97, according to The Fly.
- The firm said there is potential for further upside in nitrogen prices and CF’s earnings.
- UAN stock has outperformed peers Intrepid, Mosaic and Nutrien.
CF Industries (CF) and CVR Partners (UAN) stocks have emerged as standout leaders in the fertilizer space, each rallying more than 30% since U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran escalated tensions late last month, triggering a sharp spike in global nitrogen prices and tightening supply chains.
At the time of writing, both CF and UAN shares gained about 0.5% on Friday.
Why The Middle East Matters For Urea?
Recently, RBC Capital Markets noted that the Middle East accounts for about 35% - 40% of global urea exports, a larger share than its share of crude oil exports. Rising LNG prices are also pushing up nitrogen fertilizer production costs, which could benefit companies like CF Industries.
Meanwhile, Urea FOB US Gulf futures for April 2026 deliveries have surged more than 50% since the war in the Middle East began.
Fertilizer Stocks: Analysts See More Room For Rally
On Thursday, UBS raised its price target on CF Industries to $140 from $97 while maintaining a ‘Neutral’ rating, according to The Fly. The firm said there is potential for further upside in nitrogen prices and CF’s earnings, as current market prices may not fully reflect the severity of ongoing industry disruptions.
Last week, BMO Capital Markets raised its price target on CF Industries to $140 from $115 and maintained an Outperform rating, citing expectations that elevated prices for nitrogen, phosphate, sulfur, and methanol will persist in the near term.
Both UAN and CF have significantly outperformed key fertilizer stocks, including Intrepid Potash (+22%), Nutrien (-2%), and Mosaic (-9%) since the war began.
Retail Investors Remain Cautious
Retail sentiment for both CF and UAN stocks was ‘bearish’ on Stocktwits. However, chatter was mixed.
One investor believes that CF could crash to $100 once Iran re-opens the Strait of Hormuz.
One user tracking UAN said the stock can go “way higher given the fertilizer crisis that is about to unfold.”
CF Industries, the world’s largest producer of ammonia, converts it into products such as urea, urea ammonium nitrate, and ammonium nitrate. CVR Partners produces ammonia, urea, and ammonium nitrate fertilizers.
Year-to-date, CF shares have surged 71% while UAN has gained 34%.
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