- The company’s EBITDA forecast of around $110 million to $140 million falls short of its FY2025 EBITDA of $151.2 million.
- Evolent’s Q4 revenue fell 27% to $468.7 million, but beat estimates of $467.5 million, according to Fiscal.ai data.
- Keybanc sees Evolent’s debt leverage rising to about seven times before potentially moderating.
Shares of Evolent Health (EVH) fell more than 5% in pre-market trading on Wednesday, following a bearish brokerage action after the company announced lower earnings guidance alongside its fourth-quarter results.
If the pre-market levels hold after the opening bell, EVH stock would fall to an all-time low. This adds to the heavy selling pressure over the past month, during which the shares have slumped 31%.
The company also generated significant retail buzz. According to Stocktwits data, message volume on the platform increased by 1,850% over the past 24 hours and by 1,200% over the past seven days.
Q4 Revenue Beats Estimates Despite 27% Drop
Evolent’s fourth-quarter revenue declined 27% to $468.7 million, but came in just over Wall Street’s estimates of $467.5 million, according to Fiscal.ai data. On an adjusted basis, the company reported earnings of $0.08 per share, beating consensus estimates of $0.05 per share.
Evolent forecasts full-year 2026 revenue to be in the range of $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion, above the $1.88 billion revenue it reported in FY 2025. However, its adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) forecast of around $110 million to $140 million falls short of its FY2025 EBITDA of $151.2 million.
“While the addition of $900 million in new Performance Suite revenue in 2026, as well as the impact of significant health plan customer membership decreases in their Exchange products, create an impact on Adjusted EBITDA in the first half of the year, we believe our year-end 2026 margins should quickly step-up as new contract reserving effects ease throughout the year and our operating cost reduction plan ramps up across 2026,” CEO Seth Blackley said.
Keybanc Flags Lack Of Visibility In EBITDA Recovery
KeyBanc downgraded Evolent Health to ‘Sector Weight’ from ‘Overweight’ without adding a price target, according to The Fly. Although the firm described Evolent’s Q4 results as ‘solid’, KeyBanc had expected the company’s debt leverage to begin easing in early 2026. Instead, the brokerage sees leverage rising to about seven times before potentially moderating later in 2026.
Keybanc also added that the downgrade reflects “limited visibility into a meaningful EBITDA recovery in the near term.”
“While this increase in revenue creates a powerful foundation for EBITDA acceleration, it also creates a temporary headwind in 2026 due to our reserving methodologies and the timing of implementation of the new contracts. Second, Specialty TNS 2026 performance is experiencing a significant headwind from exchange membership declines consistent with the entire industry,” CFO Mario Ramos said in a call with analysts.
How Did Stocktwits Users React?
Despite the pre-market fall, retail sentiment turned ‘neutral’ from ‘bearish’ a day earlier, amid ‘high’ message volumes.
One user said the stock’s decline doesn’t reflect its fair value.
Another user does not expect the stock price to drop any further.
The stock has been in an extended downtrend, declining more than 34% so far in 2026 and over 75% in the past year.
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