- Stocktwits sentiment for MP shifted to ‘bullish’ from ‘bearish’ over recent months, with message volume up 140% and followers rising 76% over the past year.
- CEO James Litinsky highlighted the company’s progress on 60 Minutes, pointing to breakthroughs in refining key rare-earth elements and expanding domestic supply chains.
- Backed by U.S. government support, MP is accelerating efforts to build a domestic magnet supply chain amid continued reliance on China, which remains a key risk.
Retail sentiment for MP Materials Corp. (MP) has been climbing even after the rare-earth company posted its worst weekly performance in nearly two months, buoyed by an upbeat television appearance from its CEO and signs of brighter prospects, despite broader market anxiety over the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran.
On CBS News' "60 Minutes," CEO James Litinsky touted how far the company has come since government officials summoned him to Washington following President Trump's April 2025 tariff blitz, a move that deepened the rift with China and exposed just how tightly Beijing controls the global rare-earth supply chain.
"Frankly, we probably needed a crisis to wake up. And so - I think if there's a silver lining, in the sense what happened last year was a big-time crisis that we needed," he said.
What MP Materials Has Pulled Off
The milestones are tangible. Two years ago, after investing hundreds of millions of dollars, MP achieved 99.9% purity in its refining of neodymium and praseodymium, two critical rare-earth elements. In the segment, Litinsky showed off the refined product stored in what he calls the "money room": 300 bags currently valued at $36 million.
Last month, the company swung to a fourth-quarter profit, beating market expectations, driven by a price-support agreement with the U.S. government and strong sales of magnetic materials.
More significantly, MP's stock has more than doubled since the April 2025 tariff shock, outpacing USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) but lagging the 174% surge recorded by The Metals Company (TMC) — though it remains more than 50% below its 52-week high of $100.25.
MP In 'Operation Warp Speed' Mode
Litinsky revealed in the interview that after Trump's tariff announcement, White House officials urged MP to pursue a "Manhattan-style" or "Operation Warp Speed"-style effort to rapidly build out a domestic rare-earth magnet supply chain. "Those exact words were used," he said.
In return, MP was offered a $400 million investment and a 15% stake in the project. The company, which controls the only rare-earth mine in North America and processes those minerals in California, is now constructing a large magnet factory in Texas designed to meet the country's needs. The facility is expected to add to MP's existing production capacity of roughly 10,000 metric tons of neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets per year, with groundbreaking expected "imminently" and commissioning targeted for 2028.
"We're now producing more rare earths at Mountain Pass than ever in the 75-year history of the site," the company said on X, adding that it was "here to remedy" America's lack of a secure supply chain of these critical materials.
MP has also partnered with the U.S. Department of Defense to develop a rare-earth refinery in Saudi Arabia, which will process feedstock from the Kingdom and other regions to produce separated light- and heavy-rare-earth oxides.
China Remains The Biggest Variable
The backdrop to all of this is China's commanding grip on the global rare-earth market. In the same "60 Minutes" segment, U.S. Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum said Beijing has effectively "weaponized" its position, flooding global markets whenever another country tries to build its own refining capacity, undercutting prices and making it uneconomical for U.S. producers to compete.
In April 2025, China added several rare-earth metals and magnets to its export control list. Though Trump later struck a deal to ease those restrictions, the U.S. industry still cannot independently source all the inputs needed to produce finished rare-earth products such as permanent magnets, according to Bloomberg. Chinese exports of rare-earth magnets to the U.S. fell nearly 23% year-over-year to 994 tonnes across January and February, Reuters reported.
Last week, Trump postponed a planned summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, pushing the visit from late this month to mid-May as Washington remains focused on military operations in Iran.
Asked directly about the risk of China cutting off rare-earth magnet supply — particularly if it were to move on Taiwan and face U.S. opposition — Litinsky said: "We need permission from the Chinese government to make things. We need permission from the Chinese government to make military things. And the practical reality is, that is not an acceptable condition. And so we have to change this dynamic."
What Retail Thinks About MP
Stocktwits sentiment on MP has shifted to 'bullish' — a marked turnaround from 'bearish' three months ago — even as the stock sits roughly 1% lower year-to-date. Engagement on the platform has surged: MP's follower count has jumped 76% over the past year, while weekly message volume has soared 140%.
Meanwhile, retail traders on the platform are posting their own takes. "Everything will get crazy with China like in October 2025 — Trump will be aggressive to China again once he is done with Iran," one user predicted, doubting a U.S.-China summit will materialize.
Another was more reflective after watching the "60 Minutes" segment: "Truly remarkable, a testament to American grit, resolve, and ingenuity. I hope the market comes to value this company more highly — not to sell it, but so that a kind of poetic justice is fulfilled."
On Wall Street, the consensus is firmly bullish: all 15 analysts covering MP rate it 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy,' with an average price target implying a 55% discount to fair value, according to Koyfin.
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