- SpaceX is reportedly preparing to file its IPO prospectus as soon as this week or next, targeting a potential June listing.
- Future Fund managing partner Gary Black warned that Tesla investors may sell shares to fund participation in the SpaceX IPO, even without a merger.
- Black expects a “clean” SpaceX IPO with no plans to acquire Tesla.
Shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) rose nearly 1% in after-hours trading on Tuesday after reports emerged that SpaceX — also led by Elon Musk — is planning to file its IPO prospectus as soon as this week or next. At least one top analyst has warned that the record-sized listing could prompt some Tesla shareholders to rotate out of TSLA to participate in the offering.
TSLA stock rose nearly 1% on Tuesday, marking its second consecutive session of gains.
SpaceX Targets June IPO With Potential $75B Raise
SpaceX is targeting a potential June public listing, with advisers expecting the offering could raise more than $75 billion, above earlier estimates near $50 billion, The Information reported, citing a person with knowledge of the matter. An IPO of that size would exceed the amount raised by all U.S. listings last year combined, according to Renaissance Capital.
The company was last valued at about $1.25 trillion following its recent merger with xAI, the developer of the Grok chatbot. Both SpaceX and Tesla separately invested $2 billion in xAI, and Tesla has received regulatory clearance to convert its investment into a stake in SpaceX following the transaction.
SpaceX has also explored a potential combination with Tesla as well as an alternative tie-up with xAI, adding to concerns about how the companies could remain interconnected. The final valuation and offering size will supposedly be determined closer to pricing.
Musk has also pushed for unusually broad retail participation in the offering. Individual investors could reportedly receive more than 20% of IPO shares, compared with roughly 10% typically allocated in most listings.
Major banks, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup have been preparing IPO plans, though formal roles have apparently not yet been finalized.
Analyst Says SpaceX IPO May Pull Investors From Tesla
Gary Black, managing partner at The Future Fund, said on X that the scale of the planned offering could influence trading in Tesla shares, even without a merger. “TSLA shareholders that want to participate in the SpaceX IPO would sell some of their TSLA shares to fund their SpaceX investment,” he said.
Black added that expectations SpaceX could go public and then use newly issued equity to acquire Tesla are “fooling themselves,” arguing institutional demand would likely weaken if investors anticipated a large post-IPO stock-funded acquisition.
“Shareholders hate when companies use equity to buy other companies,” he said, citing the past acquisition attempt involving Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery as an example of investor resistance to dilution-driven deals. “I know very few institutional holders who will invest in a SpaceX IPO if they expect SpaceX to then turn around and dilute them by buying TSLA,” he said
Black Sees ‘Clean’ SpaceX IPO As Most Likely Scenario
Black said the more likely scenario is a “clean” SpaceX IPO at roughly a $1.5 trillion valuation, raising about $50 billion, which would make it the largest listing in corporate history, surpassing the record set by Saudi Aramco at $25.6 billion.
By “clean,” he said SpaceX could indicate in its registration filing that there are “no current plans” to acquire Tesla following the listing, helping support investor demand and reduce litigation risk.
His comments follow earlier warnings that a Tesla-SpaceX deal could imply roughly 25% downside for Tesla shareholders under what he described as the “lowest-multiple rule.” “In my 30 years as a professional investor,” Black said, “I have rarely seen post-merger companies trade at blended multiples,” adding that “a Tesla-SpaceX merger is a solution looking for a problem.”
How Did Stocktwits Users React?
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment toward Tesla and xAI was ‘bearish’ amid ‘high’ message volume, while sentiment toward SpaceX was ‘bullish’ amid ‘extremely high’ message volume.
TSLA stock, the only publicly traded Musk-linked company available to investors today, has gained about 38% over the past year.
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