- The analyst said Tesla has consistently disappointed on FSD and noted that the company currently operates only 9 robotaxis without safety monitors.
- Black also warned investors against relying on “overly positive” sell-side views tied to a potential SpaceX IPO, which could be one of the largest U.S. listings on record.
- Some analysts said the “FSD spell is wearing off,” while others argued that reduced legacy EV investment has created a “bigger opportunity” for Tesla in the U.S. market.
Shares of Tesla Inc. (TSLA) are tracking toward their worst quarter in a year ahead of this week’s delivery report, after an analyst warned the company’s results “have never matched the hype” surrounding its long-running self-driving ambitions.
Tesla Autonomy Hype Under Scrutiny
Gary Black, managing partner at The Future Fund, said on X that “TSLA has underperformed [broader benchmarks] because it has never lived up to the hype” that its vehicles would operate autonomously without supervision, he said.
He said that the company currently has only nine robotaxis operating without safety monitors, representing about 2.1% of its fleet.
Earlier, Black also cautioned investors against relying too heavily on “overly positive” sell-side opinions tied to speculation around a potential public listing of SpaceX, which could be one of the largest U.S. listings on record, with some analysts also predicting the space firm could merge with Tesla next year.
“At the expected $50B-$75B IPO size, SpaceX will be the biggest payday for $TSLA analysts in years and with a big retail allocation, all will try to prove they are helpful to $TSLA management and the deal underwriters,” Black said. He added that quoting Tesla sell-side analysts on the merits of a SpaceX listing “would be like quoting your insurance salesman on whether you need more insurance.”
Tesla Q1 Deliveries Expected At 365K
Tesla is scheduled to release its first-quarter delivery figures on April 2. Wall Street expects the company to report 365,645 vehicles delivered, according to a consensus of 23 analysts published by Tesla last week. The estimate implies an 8% increase from the previous year, but a 24% decline from the fourth quarter.
Analysts expect 351,179 vehicles of the total to come from the Model 3 and Model Y platforms, with the Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck accounting for 13,946 units.
For the full year, analysts expect Tesla deliveries to reach 1.69 million vehicles, a modest increase from 1.64 million in 2025, after sales declined for a second consecutive year following a peak above 1.8 million in 2023. Earlier consensus projections published last year had placed 2026 deliveries near 1.75 million vehicles, before estimates were revised lower.
Waymo Progress Puts Pressure On Tesla
Black also cited progress by Waymo, Alphabet's robotaxi unit, as evidence that competitors remain further ahead in unsupervised deployment. Waymo is currently delivering roughly 500,000 paid rides per week across 10 cities, with a target of reaching 1 million rides per week by year-end, he said.
“Waymo is operating largely unsupervised, and Tesla still requires supervision,” Black said. “Until that changes, TSLA stock is stuck,” Black said.
Meanwhile, CEO Elon Musk said that Tesla’s AI self-driving system will be over 10x safer than human driving,” even as the company’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) software remains classified as an SAE Level 2 driver-assist system requiring continuous driver oversight.
On the other hand, GLJ Research CEO Gordon Johnson said expectations around Tesla’s autonomy rollout are overstated, arguing that the system is far from scalable robotaxi deployment. “The FSD ‘spell’ is wearing off,” Johnson said, adding that “FSD is STILL supervised, geofenced robotaxis don’t scale, and $1,000/shr by EOY ’26 is delusion.
Legacy EV Pullback Helps Tesla
However, not all analysts share the cautious outlook. Deepwater Asset Management co-founder Gene Munster said on X that broader industry conditions have improved over the past two years.
“Beyond the headline of next week’s TSLA deliveries is the reality that the EV business is in a better place today than two years ago,” Munster said, adding that reduced investment by legacy automakers has created “a bigger opportunity,” particularly in the U.S. market, where Tesla faces less competition from BYD.
How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA?
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for Tesla has slipped to ‘bearish’ levels over the past week from ‘extremely bullish’ territory a month ago, amid an over 70% decline in message volume.
TSLA stock has declined nearly 20% so far this year, making the EV maker one of the worst performers among the Magnificent Seven stocks, trailing only Microsoft and Meta.
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