- Citrini Research said that by 2027, agents would seek faster, cheaper alternatives to cards, and most would settle on stablecoins via Solana or Ethereum L2s.
- The note said that Mastercard’s first-quarter 2027 report would be the point of no return, and that management would cite agent-led price “optimization” and “pressure in discretionary categories.”
- The firm added that American Express was hit hardest due to a combined headwind from white-collar workforce reductions resulting from AI growth, which gutted its customer base.
Shares of Visa Inc., Mastercard Inc., and American Express Co. dived between 5% and 7% on Monday following an analyst report that raised concerns about new AI tools, though they edged marginally higher in overnight trading, and retail investor confidence did not dip as expected.
Citrini Research, in a note titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis,” outlined how AI could reshape the economy over the next two years, warning that credit card companies may be among the next targets as fee elimination becomes a focal point.
The firm said AI-related “euphoria was palpable” across markets, arguing that the technology is exceeding expectations and dominating investor attention — even as the broader economy lags. With agentic coding tools advancing rapidly and enabling features such as real-time price matching and cross-platform comparisons, AI is increasingly becoming a go-to consumer tool, the report added.
How Are Credit Card Firms Impacted By AI?
Citrini noted that there was a limit to price-matching and aggregating, and the biggest way to repeatedly save users money, especially as agents began transacting among themselves, was to eliminate fees. “In machine-to-machine commerce, the 2-3% card interchange rate became an obvious target,” the firm said.
By 2027, agents would go looking for faster and cheaper options than cards, and most would settle on using stablecoins via Solana or Ethereum L2s, where settlement was near-instant and the transaction cost was measured in fractions of a penny.
The research, noted as co-authored by Citrini Research and Alap Shah, Co-Founder and CEO at Littlebird, is dated June 2028 and forecasts the future of companies now focused on AI-based growth.
Citrini Research said Mastercard’s first-quarter 2027 report would be the point of no return. The note said that the company would report slowing growth and the management would cite agent-led price optimization and “pressure in discretionary categories.”
Agentic Commerce: A Headache
The research firm went on to add that, within a couple of years, agentic commerce will shift from a product story to a plumbing story. Mastercard and Visa stock will drop and might pare those losses after analysts point out their stronger positioning in stablecoin infrastructure.
“Agentic commerce routing around interchange posed a far greater risk to card-focused banks and mono-line issuers, who collected the majority of that 2-3% fee and had built entire business segments around rewards programs funded by the merchant subsidy,” Citrini Research said.
The firm added that American Express was hit hardest due to a combined headwind from white-collar workforce reductions resulting from AI growth, customer base losses, and agents routing around interchange, gutting its revenue model.
What Is Retail Thinking?
Retail sentiment on Mastercard was in the ‘extremely bullish’ territory, while Visa’s sentiment was ‘neutral’ and American Express jumped to ‘extremely bullish’ from ‘neutral’ a day ago.
Shares of Mastercard dipped nearly 6% lower on Monday after Citrini Research, while Visa stock slid nearly 5%, and American Express plunged over 7%.
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