$SPY Rate cuts when? June? Not consensus. 21% say 25 bp cut. July? 70.1% say yes. September? Only 7.8% say no cut, with the largest bet on 50 bp lower and about 9% saying 75 bp. cmegroup.com/trading/intere... Reactions to expect: 1. No rate cut in June -> Market slips a bit more. 2. No rate cut in July -> Market fall accelerates 3. No rate cut in Sept -> Market crashes (so Fed won't allow that). 4. Rate cut in June -> Rally back to prior highs or higher 5. Rate cut of 25 bp in July -> market stabilizes and may rally 6. Rate cut of 50 bp or > in July -> market rallies significantly 7. Rate cut of 50 bp in Sept. after NO earlier cut -> market rallies from much lower level than today. The market is going to be impatient with anything but a July cut. July, Sept cuts of 25 bp each will support a rally (not considering Q2 earnings slowing that is going to be reported/employment data weakness likely on Friday). But 25 bp over two meetings may be too much of a lag for the market. $SPX
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