Biden Selects New “Top Economic Adviser”

It’s widely expected that U.S. President Joe Biden will name Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard to the White House’s top economic policy position this week. 📝

She will replace White House National Economic Council (NEC) Director Brian Deese, who recently resigned. Additionally, Jared Bernstein will likely replace Cecilia Rouse as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers. And many expect the Labor Department’s chief economist, Joelle Gamble, to be made a deputy NEC director.

In her new position, Brainard will advise Biden on policy and personnel decisions and coordinate policy-making across executive branch agencies. Many speculate her long career in government could set her up to take Janet Yellen’s place as Treasury Secretary if Democrats win reelection in 2024. ðŸ—ģïļ

As a member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Brainard recently presented her colleagues with a marginally less aggressive monetary policy case. Her concerns are that if the Fed overtightened in its fight against inflation, it could lead to economic difficulties on the back end of that policy decision. She’s also known for consistently opposing various measures to ease financial regulations between 2018 and 2020.

Despite the position being all but officially confirmed, the market’s response was muted. This could suggest people are not rushing to speculate on what this means for future economic policy. There are bigger fish to fry at the moment. ðŸĪ·

While we’re on the subject of government officials, there were two more announcements today. 📰

First is that the last remaining Republican FTC Commissioner, Christine Wilson, resigned from her post. She stated that Democratic Chair Lina Khan’s “disregard for the rule of law and due process.” was her primary reason. The vacancy means President Biden can nominate two commissioners, though neither can be a Democrat.

Secondly, California Democratic senator Dianne Feinstein says she will retire at the end of her current term. That opens the door for representatives Adam Schiff and Katie Porter, California Democrats, to fight for her seat. At 89, Feinstein is the oldest sitting U.S. senator and longest-serving California senator. ⚔ïļ

Learn More About...

More in   Policy

View All

A Unanimous Decision

After a hectic few weeks in the banking sector, most of the market expected a 25 bp rate hike at today’s meeting. And that’s what the Fed delivered. 👍

Let’s start with the redlined version of the FOMC’s statement from Nick Timiraos: 

Read It

Chinese Regulators Aren’t Playing Games

As if investors in Chinese stocks didn’t have enough to worry about, the government introduced a new wild card. ðŸĪŠ

Beijing released draft guidelines designed to curb excessive gaming and spending among consumers. The proposed rules would require owners of online games to abstain from providing or condoning high-value or expensive transactions in virtual entities, whether by auction or speculative activity. Daily login rewards would also be banned, along with pop-up warnings to users displaying “irrational” consumption behavior. ðŸšŦ

Read It

Risks To The Rate Cut Thesis

One of the big themes we’ve discussed for the last four months has been the Fed cutting rates in 2024. However, there’s been a major disconnect between the market’s expectations and the Fed’s guidance since November. That disconnect made today’s Fed decision and commentary tricky for the market to digest. Let’s talk about why. ðŸĪ”

First off, going into this year, the Fed fund futures market was anticipating six rate cuts during 2024. Meanwhile, the Fed’s guidance in December suggested the central bank was estimating just three cuts during the year, as it believes there are still upside risks to inflation.

Read It

Investors Prep For A Political 2024

It’s been a good stretch of time since politics were at the center of market-related debates and analysis. Sure, the occasional debt ceiling scare and funding for specific industries were on the table, but since the pandemic, there’s not been much impacting the broader market.

However, that ended today with a flurry of news reminding investors that 2024 is an election year and will likely get complicated. 😎

Read It