Bitcoin Bulls Are Pricing In An Iran Ceasefire That Hasn't Happened Yet

• Crypto traders discussed easing tensions with Iran and declining oil prices could ignite a wider rally in Bitcoin and risk assets this week.
• Analysts Michaël van de Poppe and Ted Pillows say Bitcoin’s strength above key support levels shows underlying market strength despite the conflict.
• That bullish thesis relies on oil going lower, with traders seeing lower energy prices as a tailwind for crypto.

Crypto analysts were positioning for a relief rally over the weekend on the view that the Iran war was finally winding down and oil prices would fall with it, but the diplomatic track pointed the other way.

Iran had held off on strikes, and the US hadn’t attacked for days, with Brent dropping 10% to $87, paving the way for a good week, analyst Michaël van de Poppe said on Sunday. This will benefit Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto “bigly,” he added. 

In a separate post, the MNFund Founder explained that Bitcoin had not broken the critical resistance yet but assumed it would as oil retreated, arguing that BTC holding $65,000 through an active war demonstrated underlying market strength. The resistance zone is “party time” if you clear it, he wrote. 

Analyst Ted Pillows also made a similar call, saying if the pause held, oil could fall sharply and the market rally.

Bitcoin's price was up by 0.8% during the past 24 hours. On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment around BTC remained in the ‘neutral’ zone, while chatter around it stayed at ‘low’ levels over the past day.

The Trade's Weak Link

The diplomacy was moving along, but not in the way the trade required. 

The United States and Iran on Sunday delivered their responses to a Qatari-Pakistani proposal that would have Iran immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz in return for Washington lifting its port blockade and its sanctions on Iranian oil sales, Al Arabiya reported on Sunday. 

Iran suspended talks, not pulled out, a source told the outlet, and Tehran told Pakistani officials it had rejected the creation of a new corridor through the strait, the mechanism the reopening was intended to operate via.

That left the choke point where it's been for months. "I don't think we'll see the Strait of Hormuz open until next year," Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler, told CNBC on Friday. 

Before the war, the waterway carried 20 million barrels a day and has since slowed to a trickle, driving crude to multi-week highs and sending US gasoline 38% higher since February. 

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