Bitcoin On Track For First Back-To-Back Losing Octobers In Over A Decade As ‘Downtober’ Continues

• Bitcoin was down over 2% so far in October, putting it on track for its first back-to-back losing October in more than 10 years.
• October has been one of Bitcoin's strongest months, averaging about 18% gains. 
• Last year, Bitcoin hit its all-time high early in the month before an Oct. 10 crash sent it lower.

Bitcoin (BTC) was on track for its first consecutive October decline, with Bankless co-founder David Hoffman calling Friday “the third week of Downtober.”

October has long been one of Bitcoin's best months. Its average October return was about 18.3%, and its median is about 12.7%, according to CoinGlass data. Before last year, the month had ended lower only twice, in 2014 and 2018.

Source: Coinglass.

Last October started on a high. Bitcoin hit its all-time high of about $126,000 early in the month, before a crash on October 10 erased those gains. This year it has been different. The world's largest cryptocurrency was down over 2% so far this month. It also fell more than 3% last October. Bitcoin has not posted two red Octobers in a row in more than 10 years, with its highest gain in October being in 2017. 

Bankless co-founders Hoffman and Ryan Sean Adams discussed that Bitcoin climbed into October from the $60,000s, rather than falling from a record. "The direction of travel is quite different," one of them said.

This Week's Slide

Bitcoin dipped to around $80,000 this week, its lowest level since September 18. It is down about 7% for the year. The selling had been heavier in altcoins, where Ethereum (ETH) fell about 7.5% over the week, the hosts said, while tokens like Solana (SOL), Zchas (ZEC), Hyperliquid (HYPE) and Near Protocol (NEAR) dropped another 10% after double-digit losses the week before.

'They Feel Sideways'

The hosts argued that a choppy market fits an early bull run. They pointed to 2023, when Bitcoin spent about seven months moving sideways and suffered two 17% pullbacks. Through that stretch, Bitcoin held above its 50-week moving average. 

"So that's kind of the way early bull markets feel. They feel sideways," Adams said. Neither expected Bitcoin to fall below its low from a few months ago. "We have broken the back of the bear market," Adams added.

Bitcoin's monthly returns have swung widely this year. CoinGlass data showed it fell about 10% in January, 15% in February, and 20% in June, but gained about 25% in August.

Read also: Bitcoin Bounces Off Its Lowest Point In A Month, But Charles Schwab’s Adam Lynch Warns A Midterms Risk

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