AST SpaceMobile’s $1B Dream Faces A Reality Check: Retail Traders Debate If This Is Palantir 2.0

• Retail chatter surrounding the stock has shot up by over 1000% in the past 24 hours.
• The company said it remains optimistic on its 2027 revenue surge, and it also highlighted growing government opportunities from communications and non-communications defense programs.
• AST SpaceMobile reported a first-quarter loss of $0.66 per share, wider than Wall Street expectations for a loss of $0.2 per share. Revenue came in at $14.7 million, well below analyst estimates of $36.58 million.

Shares of AST SpaceMobile Inc. (ASTS) declined by more than 10% in premarket trading on Tuesday after the satellite communications company reported a sharp earnings miss and faced fresh scrutiny over whether it can realistically execute its aggressive satellite deployment timeline.  

The selloff came even as retail trader activity soared, with bullish investors defending the company’s 2027 infrastructure thesis and in-house manufacturing capabilities, while skeptics highlighted failed launches and aggressive cash burn.

ASTS Retail Chatter Explodes 

On Stocktwits, retail chatter about AST SpaceMobile surged by more than 1,000% over the past 24 hours. The retail sentiment surrounding the stock has remained in a ‘bullish’ region amid ‘extremely high’ message volumes.

One bullish user said, the stock is going to attain 5x value by 2027 and compared ASTS to Palantir stock’s dramatic turnaround from its 2023 levels. But one must note that ASTS remains significantly early in its commercialization cycle.

ASTS Vs Palantir: Comparing Two High-Volatility Growth Narratives

ASTS Bulls Draw A ‘Palantir Parallel’ 

In May 2023, Palantir traded near $7 to $8 after a brutal post-IPO decline from $45+ highs. The stock was down ~80% from peak, plagued by skepticism about government contract concentration, profitability timelines, and dilution. However, in its turnaround story, Palantir reported accelerating commercial revenue growth, landed the National Health Service (NHS) contract, and pivoted its narrative toward AI and Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP). By November 2024, the stock hit $65+ — a nearly 10x gain from the 2023 lows.

Meanwhile, in early 2023, ASTS stock traded in the $2 to $3 range, but since then, it has reached an all-time high of $129.89 in January this year. Shares of AST SpaceMobile have gained more than 1,500% since May 2023 and are up about 13% so far this year.

AST SpaceMobile Bets Big On Defense And Government Contracts

During its earnings call, AST SpaceMobile said it remains optimistic about its 2027 revenue surge and highlighted growing government opportunities across communications and non-communications defense programs, including Golden Dome-related initiatives and Space Development Agency contracts. 

“What we are seeing in the first half of 2026 is continued progress in building out the revenue base ahead of a large jump in 2027. As I described on the last call, we see the 2027 revenue opportunity approaching $1 billion, comprised of revenue both long-term contracted or highly recurring in nature,” said President Scott Wisniewski.

Wisniewski also added that AST SpaceMobile has sufficient contracted launch capacity to meet its 2026 deployment goals and that the company expects “a handful” of launches from Blue Origin, SpaceX, or equivalent providers.

Another user praised the company's in-house manufacturing capabilities and said the company will be one of the largest satellite manufacturers in the world.

However, not all retail traders are convinced. Another user said the company has been aggressively burning its cash. 

https://stocktwits.com/hustleexpert/message/653046648

Rakuten Share Sale Adds To Pressure

According to a news report, Rakuten Mobile revealed in an SEC filing that it completed its pre-planned sale of roughly 4.5 million AST SpaceMobile shares between April 27 and May 5, with sale prices ranging from $65.32 to $76.30.

Rakuten still holds a 5.3% stake in AST SpaceMobile, or about 15.5 million shares, after raising about $392.3 million in total proceeds.

ASTS Q1 Earnings Fineprint

AST SpaceMobile reported a first-quarter loss of $0.66 per share, wider than Wall Street expectations for a loss of $0.2 per share. Revenue came in at $14.7 million, well below analyst estimates of $36.58 million. 

However, the company maintained its full-year revenue guidance of $150 million to $200 million, which is below consensus estimates of $181.13 million.

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