India Market Watch: SEBI RAs Caution Traders As Nifty Awaits Breakout From Tight Range

On Wednesday, the Nifty 50 index managed to snap a three-day losing streak, ending marginally higher. 

The rebound, however, did little to alter the broader technical picture, with the index still locked within a range of 24,500 to 25,200. 

Market analysts suggested that this tight range reflected a lack of clear directional conviction ahead of a key expiry session.

The Trade Setup

SEBI-registered analyst Mayank Singh Chandel noted that the index formed a modest bullish candle on the daily chart, accompanied by a prominent upper shadow — a sign of supply pressure at higher levels. The presence of an inside bar pattern further underscored prevailing indecision. 

He pointed out that while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) held near 60 and short-term moving averages continued to show a positive alignment, traders would need to see a clean breakout above 24,946 to confirm renewed momentum. 

Chandel maintained that intraday dips above 24,700 could be used to accumulate long positions, but advised a cautious, range-bound trading strategy until the index convincingly moved past 25,200.

Analyst Bharat Sharma emphasized the market’s volatile rhythm, describing how the Nifty moved through all three phases — uptrend, retracement, and consolidation — within a single session. 

He observed the formation of a triangle pattern on the 15-minute chart, which often precedes a sharp move, and pointed to a compression of key EMAs between 24,760 and 24,840 as a precursor to an imminent breakout. 

Sharma also highlighted that elevated at-the-money options premiums and a put-call ratio of 0.8 signaled expectations of a volatile expiry day. 

He pegged 24,760–24,840 as a critical zone, with a breach above 24,840 opening upside targets of 24,920 and 25,000, while a fall below 24,760 could see the index slip towards 24,580 and 24,500.

Analyst Ashish Kyal echoed that Nifty remained in a tight range, with the upper Bollinger Band acting as stiff resistance. 

He pointed to the hourly mid-Bollinger Band near 24,500 as key support and flagged the index's repeated failure to sustain above previous highs as indicative of sideways price action.

Kyal stated that only a sustained move above 24,950 would pave the way for a rally towards 25,120.

Analysts caution that the market is at a technical crossroads, with a breakout from the current range likely to set the tone for the next leg of the move. Until then, traders are advised to proceed with tight stop-losses and remain nimble amid expected volatility on expiry day.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.