Nifty Eyes 25,000 On India-Pakistan Ceasefire Boost: SEBI RAs Urge Caution, Flag Key Levels To Watch

The GIFT Nifty is signalling a strong start for Indian equities on Monday, driven by de-escalation of tensions between India and Pakistan. 

SEBI-registered analysts Jeet Bhayani and Bharat Sharma urge traders to remain cautious, highlighting near-term volatility and emphasizing short-term strategies over positional bets.

What analysts’ are watching: 

Jeet Bhayani observes that GIFT Nifty at 24,594, indicates a strong gap-up opening of at least 500 points for the Indian equity markets. 

This surge is attributed to the recent easing of tensions between India and Pakistan, as both countries agreed to pause military action, bringing relief to investors who had been on edge due to the prior escalation.

However, Bhayani cautions against becoming overly optimistic in this environment. 

He suggests that traders should focus on short-term targets to enhance returns rather than holding positions for extended periods. 

Specifically, he advises against taking overnight positions in options, given the market’s recent volatility and sensitivity to geopolitical developments.

Bhayani highlights that sectors such as FMCG, Defense, Infrastructure, and Finance are likely to be in focus as the markets react to the improved geopolitical climate. 

He sees the Nifty poised to approach levels of 25,000 and possibly 25,500 in the near future.

Bharat Sharma notes that the ceasefire is a positive development for the markets, as evidenced by the strong support observed at the 24,000 level throughout the previous Friday’s trading session. 

He believes the market will react positively to this news, but advises caution, suggesting that investors should wait a few more days before making significant moves. 

Sharma notes a 23,800-24,000 accumulation range below 24,000, suggesting positional downside risk only below this zone, with a recovery expected otherwise.

From a positional standpoint, Sharma asserts that 24,000 is a robust support level. Should the market sustain below this threshold, accumulation is expected until the 23,800 level. 

If the index drops further below 23,800, the next major support is anticipated between 23,500 and 23,450, a region marked by the convergence of critical exponential moving averages (50, 100, and 200-period EMAs).

On the upside, if the market remains above 24,000, resistance is likely at 24,200, and a move above this could set targets at 24,500 and potentially 24,800 or higher. 

For intraday trading, Sharma identifies immediate support at 23,950–23,960, with 23,800 being the next logical level if the market weakens further. 

Conversely, immediate resistance is seen just above 24,100, and a decisive move above this could allow traders to target 24,200 and beyond.

The Nifty index gained 1.5% year-to-date (YTD).

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