Bullish Bias Intact, But Expiry Looms: SEBI RAs Say 25,500 Emerges As Make-Or-Break Level For Nifty

The Nifty index remained rangebound on July 9, hovering between 25,300 and 25,600, signaling a phase of consolidation amid limited momentum. 

SEBI-registered analyst Mayank Singh Chandel notes that on the daily chart, price action reflected a healthy pause after the recent rally, which is typical of a market catching its breath before the next move. 

Despite minor volatility, the broader trend remains firmly bullish, with the index holding comfortably above its 10-day and 20-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). Chandel flagged that the 25,400–25,350 zone continued to act as a key demand area, supported by recent price reactions and a strong Put base. 

From a trading perspective, he added that any dips toward this support zone may offer favorable risk-reward opportunities for positional traders aiming for targets around 25,670–25,800. On the upside, 25,600–25,670 remains an intraday ceiling, and a decisive close above this range could reignite bullish momentum. 

Key support levels have been identified at 25,400 and 25,350, with resistance at 25,670 and 25,800.

Analysing the derivatives data, Chandel observed that Put Writing at 25,400 & 25,500 indicates a strong bullish undertone, while Call Writing at 25,500 & 26,000 reflects caution near higher levels.

25,500 is emerging as a make-or-break level, and how the Nifty index behaves around it could define the direction for the next leg. 

Chandel concluded that the bias remains bullish as long as Nifty holds above 25,350–25,400. A breakout above 25,600–25,670 could unlock a fresh move toward 25,800–26,000. He advised traders to stay stock-specific and avoid aggressive positioning until the range breaks.

Bharat Sharma of Stockace Financial Services highlighted that Reliance Industries (RIL) influenced the market in the last hour of trading on Wednesday, stalling it from breaching the anticipated level of 25,550.

The closing price hovered around the strong support zone of 25,480-25,500, which should be monitored. On the 15-minute chart, the market found support at the 200-day EMA during the period of weakness, making it an immediate support level for the next session. 

If the index breached this support at 25,430 on Thursday, it could see downside till 25,380-25,300-25,200. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 25,500. Sharma added that if the index managed to recover and sustain this level, it may test targets of 25,550-25,600-25,650 and higher.

Thursday also brings Nifty expiry. Open interest data shows that the Put-Call Ratio (PCR) remains low at 0.6, indicating acute bearishness in the system, which may not be sustainable around expiry. At-the-money (ATM) straddle premiums are only 110–120 points, suggesting that dramatic movements on expiry are less likely. The maximum pain point is at 25,500, and if the market sustains above this, a short-covering rally could trigger an upside bounce.

On the downside, there are no significant support bars to prevent the fall; hence, a breach below 25,430–25,400 could result in a sharper decline. And the India VIX is near its bottom at 12, which signals concerns for options buyers unless a reversal occurs, as past trends often indicate a turnaround from such low volatility levels.

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