Nifty Weekly Outlook: SEBI Analyst Sees Short-Term Optimism; 25,000 Remains Key Hurdle

Indian equity markets wrapped up a truncated week on a positive note, with the Nifty ending near 24,900, supported by a late-week rebound. A key driver of this bounce was the strong performance in Bank Nifty, after the RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.5%, while raising its GDP growth forecast for FY26. 

This boosted sentiment across financials and large-cap counters, helping the index recover from recent lows. 

On the daily chart, SEBI-registered analyst Mayank Singh Chandel noted that the Nifty index formed a “Record Session Count” candlestick pattern, followed by a short-covering rally in the last two sessions, which injected optimism and hinted at the possibility of an extended recovery. 

Weekly Outlook

According to Chandel, for the bulls to regain dominance, Nifty must sustain above 25,000 – a zone that coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent fall and also holds the highest Call Open Interest (OI), indicating heavy supply pressure. A convincing close above 25,000 could open the door towards the next crucial resistance at 25,100–25,150. On the downside, immediate support rests at 24,600–24,550. And a breakdown below this zone may trigger fresh selling, pulling the index lower towards 24,350–24,300. 

He believes that the short-term recovery looks encouraging, but broad-based participation, especially from banking, IT, and large-cap heavyweights are key to sustaining the up-move. Without follow-through strength, the index risks slipping back into a consolidation or corrective phase. 

Levels To Watch

• Resistance: 25,000, then 25,100–25,150 

• Support: 24,600–24,550, below which 24,350 becomes critical

Chandel concluded that sustaining above 25,000 will be the key for bulls to extend momentum. If it fails to do so, he expects volatility to persist.

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