NKE Stock In Focus After Stifel Lowers Price Target To $40 – A Look At Some Key Highlights

• Stifel expects a more promotional Western marketplace and a tougher fiscal fourth-quarter gross-margin comparison to weigh on earnings.
• Nike is facing a new soccer push from On Holding after Kylian Mbappé joined the brand, while Nike continues to navigate weakness in Sportswear and Jordan businesses.
• Nike’s Oct. 1 earnings report and November Investor Day will provide updates on demand, margins and its broader growth strategy.

Stifel analyst Peter McGoldrick lowered Nike’s price target to $40 from $45 while maintaining a ‘Hold’ rating on the shares. 

The brokerage also trimmed its FY27 and FY28 adjusted earnings-per-share (EPS) estimates by $0.20 each. Stifel expects greater promotional activity in Western markets and a more challenging year-over-year gross margin comparison in the fiscal fourth quarter (Q4) to weigh on earnings.

Nike shares traded marginally in the green Friday morning at the time of writing.

Stifel Cuts Earnings Forecasts

Stifel's revised estimates put Nike's adjusted EPS at $1.70 for fiscal 2027 and $2.05 for fiscal 2028, according to Investing.com.

The firm continues to expect Nike's revenue to exceed the broader consensus. Stifel also estimates that the 2026 FIFA World Cup could contribute roughly $300 million to Nike's fiscal first-quarter 2027 revenue, according to the report published by Investing.com. 

Nike Faces Fresh Competition In Soccer

Nike faced a fresh competitive challenge last week after French soccer star Kylian Mbappé signed a partnership with On Holding (ONON). On Holding said Mbappé will work with the company to develop soccer products and represent the brand, while former French international Thierry Henry joined On as director of football.

Following On’s announcement, Evercore ISI described the move as a “direct challenge” to Nike and Adidas, which the firm said have a “near-monopoly” in the soccer category, according to The Fly.

Demand For New Products Remains A Concern

Stifel also pointed to weaker-than-needed consumer demand for new products and a continued contraction in Nike's Hoops Classics category, which the firm estimates accounts for about 18% of revenue, according to Investing.com.

Nike’s own latest results showed continued pressure in its Sportswear and Jordan businesses. Management said sell-through remained challenged in both categories, affecting current discounting and future order books. The company expects Sportswear and Jordan streetwear to remain negative in fiscal 2027, with improvement in the second half. Together, the two businesses account for approximately half of Nike’s revenue, according to management.

Nike is also working to reposition Sportswear, with management saying the company plans to introduce more than a dozen new footwear styles in the second half of fiscal 2027. Nike said its performance business, led by Running, has shown momentum, with growth expected to expand into Training, Basketball and ACG.

Nike’s broader fiscal 2026 results showed NIKE Direct revenue fell 6% for the full year, including a 12% decline in NIKE Brand Digital revenue. Converse revenue also fell 31% for the year to $1.17 billion.

Nike is scheduled to report its fiscal first-quarter (Q1) 2027 results on Oct.1, after the close of regular trading.

Retail View On NKE

Retail sentiment around NKE on Stocktwits was “bullish” over the past 24 hours, with "high" message volume.

NKE stock has dropped nearly 41% year-to-date.

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